This consultant, who plays firefighters with companies in difficulty, does not hide a certain embarrassment. “On the one hand, I am not unhappy to have obtained a loan guaranteed by the State (PGE) for my client, on the brink of the abyss,” he explains. But, on the other, I am fine. aware that if the credits are distributed to this kind of company, whose prospects for recovery are zero, we will have a big problem. “ As the Covid crisis is about to continue for a second year, the banks and the government will have to find a course between a tsunami of bankruptcies and the “zombification” of the economy, with its procession of companies that are dead alive.
–
The possibility opened up by the government in mid-January of deferring this reimbursement to 2022 further increases these two risks.
The first confinement has indeed impressively opened the floodgates of credit. The gross debt of French companies increased by nearly 175 billion euros between the end of February and the end of September 2020, against only 65 billion euros over the same period in 2019. EMPs are at the origin of this explosion: they today weigh 130 billion and 638,000 companies have subscribed. In addition, there are delays in the payments of social contributions of nearly 23 billion euros in mid-November.
Suddenly, some leaders believe that it is necessary to offer a final shot of public money to companies in need, to avoid a tidal wave in the commercial courts. During the Challenges Economic Summit in December, Antoine Frérot, CEO of Veolia and president of the Institute of Enterprise, called on the State to give “a last little helping hand” so that small structures, craftsmen and traders, see their balance sheet at the end of 2020 brought back to the level of the end of 2019. “This erases the terrible year, estimates Antoine Frérot. The additional expenditure would amount to 10 to 20 billion euros for the State. You must not stop in the middle of the ford. “
Reduced reserves
Such a solution seems unthinkable for this Parisian banker, intractable: “Continuing to massively support companies beyond a year poses a real problem of competition. Non-performing companies are carried at arm’s length. To destroy the accumulated debt, there is a proven way: to register the bankruptcies of non-viable companies. We are prepared for it. ” Financial institutions have indeed multiplied their reserves during the year and, constrained by regulations, they have more than doubled their capital ratios since the 2008 crisis.
Agnes Bénassy-Quéré, chief economist of the Treasury, does not hold a very distant reasoning. Faced with the risk of “zombification” of the economy, it welcomes “the effort to recapitalize French banks”. She calls, in a post published on January 7, for “effective restructuring procedures” for companies, with a preference for preventive treatments in order to avoid outright liquidations.
Bpifrance on the bridge
The operators in the field show themselves to be more nuanced on the risk of emerging from the crisis with a productive fabric and services weighed down by debt. “We should not focus on the volumes of PGE, considers Frédéric Coirier, co-president of the Movement of Mid-Size Enterprises (METI). Two-thirds of SMEs have taken out such a loan, but many have not used it. “ Bpifrance, which manages the EMPs, confirms in a study published on January 7, that 35% of these SME borrowers have spent very little or not at all their loan and 20% even intend to repay all of it in 2021. Conclusion: only 5 10% of companies will have difficulty repaying, for an amount estimated at 6 billion euros, calculates Philippe Brassac, CEO of Crédit Agricole SA and boss of the French Banking Federation.
“Let us not be afraid of 2021, including for companies which would find themselves in negative equity, launches Philippe Mutricy, director of studies at Bpifrance. The cash of companies has increased, almost in due proportion to the debt, there therefore has room for maneuver. The important thing will be to have a well-stocked toolbox to deal with it on a case-by-case basis. “ Debt restructuring, opening of the capital of nuggets which pass through air holes, establishment of participatory loans which will allow banks to transform their debts into quasi-equity: the banks and Bercy are working to strengthen their fragile Meccano.
–
