Feedback January 1, 2022
If a woman is given that position, it will probably be a VVD member. Sophie Hermans, for example. Or Dilan Yesilgöz.
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Sigrid Kaag wants to become Minister of Finance because, in her opinion, the Netherlands ‘is faced with major choices and investments’ and the role of this minister in this is ‘crucial’. There is little that can be said about the latter. According to some, Kaag also sees the post as a stepping stone to the premiership. Does she have any chance of that?
Although you should not be too quick to say ‘never’ in politics, it is not very obvious that a Kaag I cabinet is on the way. D66 has considerably fewer seats than the VVD. At the moment, that difference is ten. Democrats are unlikely to ever catch up. No polls indicate they are getting any closer. If any party should be deemed capable of surpassing the VVD, it is more likely Geert Wilders’ PVV.
Now I also know that the largest party does not necessarily provide the prime minister. There is no such thing in any law, and parliamentary history is full of examples of leaders of smaller factions who have held office. But that hasn’t happened in quite some time. In 1971 Barend Biesheuvel became Prime Minister in a five-party cabinet, although his Anti-Revolutionary Party (later merged into the CDA) did not hold the most seats in the coalition by far. But after that it was always the leader of the largest coalition party, and since 1986 even the number 1 of the largest House of Representatives faction at all, who was allowed to lead the government.
Perhaps that is partly because a prime minister is a bit more of the head of government than he used to be. Although this is not stated in his job description, in practice it comes down to it. The prime minister not only chairs the cabinet meeting (that has never been different), he also increasingly represents the Netherlands abroad, including at EU summits. Everyone sees him (a woman has never made it to prime minister so far) as ‘the boss of the Netherlands’, although strictly speaking he is not.
Anyway: Kaag is simply not eligible to claim the premiership in the next term of office. If a woman is given that position, it will probably be a VVD member. Sophie Hermans, for example. Or Dilan Yeşilgöz. Although the possibility that Mark Rutte will simply start his fifth cabinet should not be underestimated.
Kaag will therefore sit on Finance for about three years – because there will be new elections in 2025. You may wonder whether that is sensible, because she has never shown much connection with this policy area. Her knowledge of it will therefore not last.
On the other hand, she can of course also grow in her work. Moreover, finance ministers are often popular ministers. For reasons that are not entirely clear, the Dutch have a certain preference for strict mathematicians, who draconically cut back on our money. This applied to Jeroen Dijsselbloem and Wim Kok (both PvdA), but also Onno Ruding (CDA) and Gerrit Zalm (VVD). They were all quite popular.
Kok was the last finance minister to succeed to become prime minister. Even before him, not too many politicians succeeded. Besides, it’s been almost thirty years.
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