Feedback 23 May 2021
The two left parties will have concluded that any alternative is worse.
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It looks like PvdA and GroenLinks will join the new cabinet led by Mark Rutte. Why do they actually want that? Isn’t it terribly hypocritical to first support a motion of no confidence against Rutte and then form a coalition with him? There is indeed a lot to be said about this. But the two left parties will have concluded that any alternative is worse.
Taking a seat in the opposition benches means having nothing to crumble for another four years (or as long as the reign lasts). Opposition parties can table motions and amendments, but they only get a majority if the government factions approve. Furthermore, opposition factions are on the sidelines. They can shout out that it all has to be done differently, but they have no influence on that process.
Moreover, it remains to be seen whether the voters will reward their principled attitude after four years. The PvdA (on March 17 stuck on nine parliamentary seats after the largest election defeat of all time) and GroenLinks (six seats loss) have recently had no pleasant experiences with this.
New elections do not offer any prospects either. To begin with, it is highly questionable whether this will take place at all, because so far a large majority of the House does not want that. And if it does, the VVD will again end up as by far the largest according to all polls, while the left will again do badly. Not something to look forward to. A minority cabinet could offer a solution, because the opposition then has a certain amount of power. But such a minority government is unlikely to take office. In any case, parties that do not participate cannot enforce its arrival. I think we hardly need to talk about fantasy solutions, such as a VVD-free coalition of seven parties led by D66 leader Sigrid Kaag.
What remains: govern yourself. Perhaps reluctantly, but there are no other options. In addition, the circumstances are expected to make it somewhat less unattractive to sit on the plush. Three out of five potential government parties – namely PvdA, GroenLinks and D66 – will think more or less the same about many things (climate, EU, immaterial policy). When it comes to the socio-economic course, D66 tends more towards VVD and CDA, but there may be some nuance differences.
Rutte will certainly not be eager to welcome two left-wing fraternities (PvdA and GroenLinks) into his cabinet. But because of everything that has happened in recent weeks, he will probably not be able to blow too high off the tower. He should be happy that he will be prime minister again. He will probably not be able to set many substantive requirements.
Whether the CDA will also participate in Rutte IV is still unclear. Party leader Wopke Hoekstra does not dare to snub the Held Laureate Pieter Omtzigt, who is sick at home. Should a schism arise in the CDA, Hoekstra would have a major problem. However, it is far from certain that Omtzigt will allow it to happen. He has been a CDA Member of Parliament since 2003 (with a short break). In all that time he has not emerged as a rebellious breaker, but has always adapted to the party line. He has been annoyingly compared to a pit bull that barks but never bites through. Was he going to do that this time? Hoekstra, who has contact with Omtzigt via whatsapp, by telephone and perhaps also physically, has not dared to take the gamble so far. But there is no doubt that Wopke would love to rule.
My estimate is that Rutte IV (with VVD, D66, CDA, PvdA and GroenLinks) will eventually come. Of course, no one knows whether it will end the journey, with parliamentary inquiries about the allowance scandal and the corona crisis in the offing. Chances don’t seem that big.
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