Opinions Russian-Ukrainian war
Vitaly Portnikov
Journalist
March 01, 2023 at 20:46
Photo: novyny.live | All negotiations between Lukashenka and Xi, I think, can be reduced to one important task: how to help Putin and at the same time not to perish ourselves
Lukashenka was once called “the last dictator in Europe.” Today they are already called one of the aggressors, ready to violate international law and commit crimes in order to maintain power. And at the same time, perhaps his regime is one of the goals of the Kremlin, whose inhabitant seems to be preoccupied with the idea of absorbing all the former Soviet republics, and by no means only Ukraine, writes Vitaly Portnikov for Crimea. Realities.
This desire of Vladimir Putin for territorial expansion, I think, has always been obvious to Alexander Lukashenko. That is why in 2008 he continued to support the idea of Georgia’s territorial integrity and maintained good relations with Mikheil Saakashvili. Only now has Putin managed to get Lukashenka to make a “tourist” trip to Sukhumi, and the other day a meeting with the President of Abkhazia Aslan Bzhaniya in Minsk. But at the same time, there is no talk of recognizing the independence of Abkhazia according to the Russian model: Lukashenka communicated with Bzhania as the head of a certain “republic”, and not a sovereign state.
Approximately the same maneuvers in 2014 Lukashenka did with Crimea. Putin did not wait for formal recognition of the Russian status of the occupied peninsula. Lukashenka promised several times to come to Crimea. After 2020, when Ukraine announced its readiness to join the EU sanctions against Belarus, he even announced the possibility of such a trip through Russia – since he is not allowed to go through Ukraine. But, however, he never reached the Crimea. And it is clear why – where Crimea or the Donetsk region is, Mogilev or Vitebsk can also be there, if, I am sure, Putin wants it.
But who can now guarantee Lukashenka the preservation of power in a sovereign country, especially since Russian troops are now stationed on the territory of this country, who do not intend to leave anywhere? I think there is only one person left – Xi Jinping.
Yes, of course, Belarus and China have no common borders. In this sense, it is much easier for Beijing to interact with the countries of Central Asia, and we all observed with what reverence the President of the PRC was received in Kazakhstan and then in Uzbekistan, at the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
But China does not have so many European partners now, who need not only economic cooperation with Beijing, but also its political support. That is why China has always tried to build its own relations with Belarus, so to speak, bypassing Russia.
Well let’s not forget that Lukashenka can always be used as a cover for cooperation with Putin himself – for example, if it comes to a decision on the supply of weapons. The Chinese leadership may be wary of direct cooperation with Moscow in order not to run into Western sanctions. And Minsk, I think, may not seem such a dangerous partner.
Well, it is quite likely that it is very important for China that Belarus itself does not get completely bogged down in the Russian war against Ukraine, that its army is not involved in the attack on Ukraine, that new sanctions do not completely destroy the already diminished role of Belarus as a “transit window”. “China. Simply put, All negotiations between Alexander Lukashenko and Xi Jianping, I think, can be reduced to one very important task for them: how to help the Russian president and at the same time not to perish themselves. Copyright © 2020 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with permission from Krym.Realii (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty).
