Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said, “There is no madness, only madness” to describe TSMC (2330-TW) The stock price is not an exaggeration. It was only a week after the Falun Dafa meeting last Thursday, and the share price rose by 81 yuan, an increase of 15%. TSMC, which accounts for 30% of the market’s weight, if you add Hon Hai (2317-TW), MediaTek (2454-TW), UMC (2303-TW), it is difficult for the market not to hit a high for the market to rise above these four gears.
However, looking at the index alone will be distorted. The excessive concentration of funds in TSMC has instead crowded out small and medium-sized stocks. Today, half of the stocks listed on the stock market fell. However, the characteristic of long positions is that the funds are currently flooded. , The attraction to funds is getting bigger and bigger, because after TSMC’s rise, it has also widened the price comparison space for Taiwan stocks.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, pointed out that why does TSMC keep going so fast? The first reason I analyzed in the previous column is that the wafer production capacity of advanced processes has been regarded as an important strategic material to be grabbed by major countries such as the United States and China. TSMC has the most advanced manufacturing process, the highest yield rate, and more than half of the market share. Of course, funds grab this stock.
Second, the demand for 5G and electric vehicles will explode in 2021, but most manufacturers conservatively planned their operations in 2021 in response to the epidemic last year, resulting in insufficient inventory when demand broke out and production expansion was not in time.
Third, TSMC’s capital expenditures will explode in 2021. If Intel’s orders were not for TSMC’s foundry, it would be difficult to find customers who can provide such growth in the next two years. If TSMC successfully obtains Intel orders, its leading position will be more stable, and the watermelon effect will attract more customers to place orders.
Fourth, the traditional P/E ratio is no longer applicable to TSMC due to the pursuit of funds. It is estimated that TSMC’s EPS will reach RMB 23~24 this year, and the P/E ratio is close to 30 times. Compared with Taiwan stocks, there are still many stocks with a P/E ratio of 10-20 times. TSMC is not cheap anyway.
However, the strength of the ant fighters cannot be underestimated. Since the beginning of this year, TSMC’s financing has increased by more than 5,800. If calculated at the 10-day average price, there will be as much as 35 billion in funds for the 13 trading days this year. In addition, domestic retail investors love to buy ETFs and warrants, which is also an important force in pushing up TSMC’s stock price. While ETFs and Quandong are constantly being bought, the issuing brokers passively want to buy TSMC. Such an infinite loop has caused TSMC to dominate.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, emphasized that under the low interest rate environment, there are a lot of market funds, and TSMC’s surge will eventually have spillover effects.
First of all spillover to the upstream and downstream of the foundry, such as IC design, use MediaTek (2454-TW) to represent. Earlier in my column, I analyzed the strong collaboration between TSMC and MediaTek, just like TSMC’s support for AMD, and later it cannibalize Intel’s market share. Now, MediaTek, under the foundry resources of TSMC, has obtained the chip production capacity that everyone has rushed to. In the battle of 5G chips, it is expected to replicate the AMD model and grab more market share. MediaTek’s market share of 5G chips is estimated to exceed 30% this year, and it is also a top global company. Funds are of course unsolicited.
In addition, last week’s column analysis of optimistic packaging and testing plants ASE Investment Control (3711-TW), after continuing to rise to 109.5 yuan this week and setting a new high, KYEC (2449-TW), Chaofeng(2441-TW), Sigurd (6257-TW) And so on began to rise.
MediaTek is a major customer of KYEC and Sigurd. This year, MediaTek’s 5G chip shipments are expected to be 150 million units. Other major customers such as Qualcomm and Xilinx have also released orders, driving a high growth in performance this year. The stock price has increased relatively since last year. behind. Among them, Sigurd has estimated EPS of 4.1 yuan in 2020 and challenged 5 yuan in 2021. The P/E ratio is about 10 times.
And TSMC’s performance momentum comes from the massive contribution of 5G and automotive chips, and related groups are also worth paying attention to. For example, the amount of memory used in 5G and cars has greatly increased. The stock prices of Micron and Hynix have set new highs in 20 years, and the stock price of domestic memory has fallen behind.
However, the Chunjiang Plumbing Duck Prophet, NAND Flash control IC manufacturers Group Alliance (8299-TW) In the first quarter, the chip quotation will be increased by 15-20%, and the stock price will also reach a three-year high; Macronix (2337-TW), Winbond (2344-TW) The prices of NOR Flash and niche DRAM have risen at the end of last year. Only the contract price of standard DRAM has not risen, but the spot price has risen by 20% last month and continues to rise in January.
DRAM modules have also risen, and it is difficult not to increase the contract price later. The most beneficiary is the South Asian family (2408-TW), it’s time to make a statement if it hasn’t risen in the last month. Module Factory ADATA (3260-TW), Team Group (4967-TW) In 2021, the EPS will be 8 yuan and 7 yuan respectively, and the P/E ratio is relatively low. This wave of backlash already has medium and long-term investment value.
Wang Rongxu, an analyst at Wanbao Investment Consulting, said that the wafer production capacity is full, and the driver IC gap is also growing. Novatek (3034-TW) After the IC price increase, the panel quotation rose again in late January. AUO (2409-TW), Innolux (3481-TW) In the first quarter, earning tens of billions in a single quarter, the chance of EPS earning 1 yuan is increasing. Compared with the current stock price of 13-14 yuan, it is really wronged.
Innolux’s net value per share reached 23 yuan, and the price-to-net ratio approached 0.5. Similarly, Hon Hai Group developed Guangyu (2328-TW) And Hong Zhun (2354-TW) Recently, it has risen sharply, but is it an opportunity for Innolux that has cut into the car panel to pull back.
Rongchuang (3437-TW) Supply of Mini LED car panels. Recently, the stock price has slowly risen. More and more new cars use a large number of panels as the central control system. This is the new blue ocean of LCD and LED. Recently, a legal person silently bought a large Mini LED chip manufacturer Fucai (3714), and the future trend is also worth tracking.
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