Moscow probably pointed to the dam of the Dnestr hydroelectric power plant, which is 10 km from the Naslavcha dam. The missile was shot down by the Ukrainian anti-aircraft system. But the fallen debris damaged several homes.
This is far from the first such case. Russia has repeatedly used airspace Moldova for attacks on Ukraine in the southern and northern directions. And Russian drones were repaired 5-10 km from the Romanian border, that is, by NATO.
Ministry of Defence Moldova they reacted rather reservedly, stating that they did not detect enemy missiles in their skies. And there is a reason for this: Moldovan experts and journalists claim that the country simply has nothing with which to respond to Russia. BUT IT IS Moldova condemned another Kremlin war crime against Ukraine. And then, unexpectedly, sent employee of the Russian embassy, declaring him persona non grata.
All of this is happening in the background. articles The Washington Post, which made a lot of noise. It said the FSB was working to overthrow the pro-Western government in Moldova at the hands of pro-Russian Moldovan politicians who fled overseas. Furthermore, both Putin and Kremlin propaganda have recently resumed the talk of Odessa, saying they must first destroy the port there, and then capture the city to isolate Ukraine from the sea. No surprise Russia announced the suspension of its participation in the “grain agreement”.
And there and Transnistria is not far away. Russia has begun to shake up the already fragile political structure in Moldova. Pro-Russian politicians have long been organizing anti-government demonstrations to demand a change of power. And the statements by President Mai Sandu speak for themselves: “If the Russian Federation threatens Moldova, we will defend ourselves”.
Has Putin really decided to use Transnistria to open a third front against Ukraine in addition to the Belarusian one? Does Russia have the strength for this? And what could NATO’s response be? TSN.ua recognized.
Transnistrian factor
In April, two months after the start of a large-scale Russian war against Ukraine, the information space was enlivened by news of a series of explosions in Transnistria. At the same time, Russia began firing missiles at the bridge over the Dniester estuary, and Western media reported that Putin was preparing to invade Moldova.
So our intelligence defined it as nothing more than Russian psychological pressure, while at the same time recording some activity at Tiraspol airport. In fact, like the Belarusian leadership all this time, until recently Putin really began to amass his troops there. Pridnestrovie, we recall, is a republic not recognized even by Russia in the east of Moldova, where the Russian (Soviet) military contingent is still deployed.
As for its exact size, estimates vary. Former Moldovan ambassador to Ukraine Ruslan Bolbochan spoke of 1,500 Russian soldiers and 20,000 tons of ammunition. The media reports a figure of 1,700 soldiers. In the spring of this year, Ukrainian intelligence reported that there were actually up to 300 combat-ready people and discarded ammunition. In the spring, Russia made no secret of the fact that it wanted to create a land corridor for Transnistria through Odessa, completely cutting Ukraine from the sea.
However, it all failed. The threat from the Moldovan leadership was forgotten until the summer, when Ukraine and Moldova received candidate status for EU membership. The then Vice-President of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev said that Moldova, united with Romania, will try to accelerate its accession to the European Union. And the Russian propaganda has dispelled the falsehood that Moldova, in collusion with Romania and with the support of NATO, is preparing to “occupy” Transnistria.
In July, Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa replied in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: Moldova is concerned that it may become the next victim of a Russian military invasion; this is a hypothetical scenario, but the situation could change.
Analysts of the European Council for External Relations, evaluate various options for Russia’s actions to destabilize the situation in Moldova and overthrow the pro-European government led by Maia Sandu, wrote:
“The three most likely scenarios for Russian aggression are military action from Transnistria; an elite-centered local uprising similar to what Russia did in the Donbass in 2014 and which will likely be concentrated in Gagauzia; and popular unrest which will contain elements of violence. “
Shake up the situation
It appears that against the backdrop of military defeats in the war against Ukraine and a lack of energy resources, the Kremlin has resorted to a hybrid option due to local protests in Moldova, which were actually inspired by Russia. Because Putin does not reject the restoration of the USSR. As before, he tries to occupy all of Ukraine, Moldova and other former Soviet republics. He just doesn’t have the strength and resources to do it right now.
Before losing the presidential office, Igor Dodon was the leader of the pro-Russian fifth column in Moldova. Now Moscow is looking for an alternative. And it looks like I found it. For several months, Russian-inspired anti-government protests have not subsided in Moldova. Behind them is Ilan Shor, who appears in numerous criminal cases. The United States has imposed sanctions on him and his party for destabilizing the situation in Moldova. He himself is abroad, like the notorious oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc. For a long time it was believed that Plahotniuc “held” almost the whole of Moldova. However, in 2019, he had to leave the country after the US, EU and Russia reached a joint deal on Moldova.
However, Plahotniuc recently made a controversial announcement about his return to Moldovan politics, apparently hoping for Russian engagement. According to the deputy executive director of the “Ukrainian Prism” of the Foreign Policy Council Sergei Gerasimchuk, the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine have probably become a certain lesson for Moscow. As a result, in Moldova, the Kremlin resorts to old methods of influence.
In the first place, this is the use of a gas vise. Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Moldova, including the Transnistria region, to 50% of the contract volume.
Secondly, these are attempts to overthrow the pro-European government by speculating on social issues. And now it is more than relevant due to rising energy prices: for example, gas tariffs for the population have increased 6 times in the last year.
In such a situation, according to Sergei Gerasimchuk, the position of President Mai Sandu is rather shaky. However, he can rely to a large extent on the support of the EU and, above all, of Romania.
“Bucharest is already trying to compensate Moldova for the loss of access to Ukrainian electricity supply. Ukraine has supplied Moldova with about 30% of its electricity (however, due to Russian strikes in our energy system, this export The plans for cooperation with Bulgaria and Romania for the supply of gas from alternative sources are being discussed Not in vain, on 1 November Maia Sandu visited Bucharest, where she met the Romanian President Klaus Iogannis, discussing not only of electricity supply, but also of fuel oil, gas and firewood. Russia is using its proxies to undermine Moldova, Maia Sandu is working to strengthen the already unprecedented solidarity with Romania and the EU ” , said Sergei Gerasimciuc.
We emphasize once again that Putin does not have the strength to occupy Odessa and break through a land corridor to Moldova via Transnistria. Therefore, the Kremlin resorts to hybrid scenarios to undermine the situation in Moldova from within, so that political forces loyal to Russia will rise to power there. Therefore, Moscow generously feeds anti-government protests there against the backdrop of Russia’s withdrawal from the “wheat deal” and Putin’s new statements on Odessa.
“Odessa can be both a bone of contention, and a symbol of conflict resolution, and a symbol for finding some sort of solution to everything that is happening. The question is not with us,” Putin told Valdai in response to the question of what kind of visa would be needed to travel to Odessa in a few years.
At the same time, the fear factor comes into play. By using Moldovan airspace to attack Ukraine, Putin is trying to intimidate Moldovan society so that people are afraid to even think about Russian resistance. In addition, such daring demonstration flights of Russian missiles take place right on the border with Romania, which is a member of NATO. Many Ukrainian experts say that Romanian and American forces will certainly intervene if Russia still decides to use a military scenario against Moldova. However, Romanian analysts do not really agree with these claims. At least for now.
According to the president of the Association of Experts in Security and Global Affairs (ESGA, Romania) Angela Gramada, the fall of the fragments of the Russian missile in Moldova has sparked much discussion. However, according to the expert, the most important thing is that the Foreign Ministry reacted, calling it a threat to the country’s security, and expelled the Russian diplomat.
“Of course, this incident can also be attributed to the destabilization of the situation in the country, especially in domestic politics. Because we are witnessing protests organized by pro-Russian formations, and there are voices from Transnistria who insist on the official position of the Kremlin on recognizing independence. (of the unrecognized republic – ed) But our government is also trying to counter all these challenges.Romania will continue to help Moldova, but it will do so in the economic, energy and humanitarian fields, strengthening the potential of the army We will not have a reaction different, at least in the near future, “summed up Angela Gramada for TSN.ua.
