While royal informants were supposed to make their final report on February 4, the Royal Palace presented the chef’s surprise: Koen Geens was charged with a royal mission. Why did the King choose Deputy Prime Minister CD&V and do he have a chance of succeeding in his mission?
Analysis of the situation with Dave Sinardet, professor of political science at VUB and Saint-Louis University.
►►► Read also : Koen Geens commissioned by the King to end mission for royal informants
“It’s a mission that surprised many. The name of Bart De Wever was circulating because there were different party presidents who wanted Bart De Wever to come to the maneuver, it was the wish of the CD&V for a long time“, says Dave Sinardet, professor of political science.
Initially, the idea was to have a duet mission Bart De Wever-Paul Magnette, but the president of the PS refused. “The Palace has judged that it would not be of much use to entrust a mission to Bart De Wever alone, it could be a mission whose sole purpose is to make him fail“, analyzes the Antwerp political scientist.
A blocked PS / N-VA alliance?
Dave Sinardet also notes a difference in analysis regarding the chances of success of a government combining the two largest parties in Wallonia and Flanders: “On the Flemish side, we often hear that an agreement between the PS and the N-VA would not be ultimately that impossible. The Socialist Party is said to be ready to make concessions on the regionalization of certain powers in exchange for a more social policy. But, in this case, it would be the MR which would no longer have many interesting elements: it would not have a liberal policy, would have to make community concessions and release the Open Vld.“
►►► Read also : “The Palace’s best asset”, “statesman” … The royal mission of Koen Geens seen by the press
On the French side, repeated messages tenors of the PS suggest that it would be the French-speaking socialist party that would block an alliance between the Flemish nationalists and the PS.
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Charged with a royal mission: logic
Dave Sinardet is surprised that the president of the CD&V, Koen Geens, does not receive an official title: “If he is called an informant, this would mean that the mission of Joachim Coens and Georges-Louis Bouchez would have completely failed, which is partly the case even if that is not what we wanted to imply.“
Barely thanked, the president of the MR, Georges-Louis Bouchez, reveals his own interpretation of the designation of Koen Geens on Twitter:
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Besides, he is not an informant but a very preformative without saying so …:
– Georges-L BOUCHEZ (@GLBouchez) January 31, 2020
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For Dave Sinardet, to appoint the deputy prime minister as a pre-reformer would be going too fast: “This would mean that we already know what the coalition is since, when we start to form or pre-form, it is with the aim of establishing a very concrete coalition and we are still not there at all. Not giving it a title was therefore the most logical compromise.“
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Logical choice
Several reasons explain the choice of the Royal Palace, according to the professor of political science. “The CD&V is a crucial party in the negotiations. Since the elections, he does not want to take off from the N-VA to go to a alternative coalition, the Vivaldi. The Palais has been favoring the PS / N-VA track for some time, which is also the preferred track of the CD&V.“
►►► Read also : A federal government without the N-VA? “The CD&V clearly says no,” says Koen Geens
The Flemish Christian Democrats are also the kingmakers, despite their 12 seats in the House: they are necessary for a majority between PS and N-VA but also for an alliance with the socialists, liberals, ecologists.
At the same time, Dave Sinardet believes that the choice for Koen Geens is quite logical: “He is an emblematic character of the CD&V. Naming someone like Koen Geens, who is known to have certain ambitions to become Prime Minister, speaks volumes. He certainly doesn’t want to get burned. This could suggest that there are realistic tracks on the Palace side. Otherwise, it would be weird to name it already now.“
The political scientist wonders: “Will he first test the N-VA and PS track and finally realize that it won’t work?“There would then remain two scenarios: the Vivaldi, or the early elections.
What is certain is that the situation is just as blocked as before, but that it is up to the new royal missionary to unblock it.
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