Israel has carried out a series of bold military operations that have included strikes on foreign capitals and commando raids in the Gaza Strip, which threaten to spark a new escalation in the Middle East. The military is betting that the response will be manageable – and that it is more important to strike fear into its adversaries after the October 7 failure.
“There is no doubt that Israel’s need to show that it is not just capable but excellent in terms of executing operations has created a much greater willingness to take risks.” said the Aaron David Miller from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
Israel admitted to killing Hezbollah’s top military commander in Beirut on Tuesday. Fuad Soukr, whom he holds responsible for the rocket attack that killed 12 children in the Golan Heights. A few hours later, the political leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniya, was assassinated in Tehran. These attacks followed other operations carried out by Israel causing many casualties among civilians.
To kill the military leader of Hamas Mohammed Daif in July it dropped eight powerful bombs that killed 90 Palestinians in a pre-designated humanitarian zone. It was preceded by a hostage rescue operation in the heart of the Gaza market in broad daylight, sparking street fighting that left 274 Palestinians dead.
It is unclear whether these strikes will significantly degrade the military capabilities of Hezbollah and Hamas. But they led to fiery rhetoric and warnings of harsh retaliation. The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei he stated that the attack on his country would provoke a strong response.
The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, said the killing in Beirut escalates the conflict. Concerns are now mounting that Iran will launch a large-scale attack alongside its allies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq – a scenario the US has been trying to avoid for months. Diplomats from the US and the wider region are urging Iran not to respond in a way that would lead to escalation.
Israel expects a response to the killings and hopes it will be manageable. His first concern is to restore deterrent power. The October 7 attack shook Israeli society not only because of the brutal loss of life but also because of the failure of the military to prevent it.
Some of Israel’s aggressive moves caught its allies off guard. US officials said they expected the attack in Beirut in response to a rocket that killed 12 Druze in the Golan, but did not expect Haniya’s assassination in Tehran. The Biden administration has a lower tolerance for risk than the Israelis who “They believe this is an opportunity they should take advantage of, especially against Hezbollah.” said the Mark Dubovich from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.
“Legal right”
Some Israelis believe that Hezbollah’s continued rocket fire, which has displaced some 60,000 residents of northern Israel, gives the country a legal right to go to war. Israel has long relied on targeted assassinations to undermine its enemies, including leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas and senior officials from Iran’s security services and nuclear program.
Israelis believe that such assassinations hurt their enemies because they eliminate critical leaders who are difficult to replace while forcing those who remain to act more cautiously, thereby making them less effective.
War is an opportunity to kill enemies because daily hostilities are a given, whereas in peacetime the same killing can spark violence. According to an Israeli security official, Israel is willing to take greater risks to annihilate its enemies during this war, given the severity of the threat.
But there has long been debate in Israel about the strategic value of targeted killings. The Israelis have killed senior Hamas and Hezbollah officials in the past. However, both organizations became stronger with time.
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