why is Grand-Est once again the epicenter of the epidemic in France?

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Several hypotheses, but no certainty

For the moment, the infectiologist has only hypotheses to formulate on the reasons for this resumption of the epidemic: “We don’t really have an answer: every time we have a hypothesis, there is a counter-hypothesis. ” Lorraine is not the Rhône valley, he reminds us, it is not streaked with major traffic axes. The cold climate of the region is also mentioned as a possible factor, but the temperatures of this month of December are as mild in Metz as in Nancy, yet more affected. The proximity to Germany, where the epidemic is starting again, is another theory according to L’Express, but the departments most affected by Covid-19 are in the land. As for the hypothesis of an outbreak linked to the English variant of the virus, “our region is not directly in contact with the United Kingdom, sweeps the infectious disease specialist. The Channel tunnel does not lead to Nancy”.

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Christian Rabaud therefore puts forward the idea of ​​”super spreaders”, of individuals much more contaminating than others who would spread the epidemic in an unpredictable manner. “10 people are contaminated, 9 will not infect anyone and the tenth will infect 15 people at once,” he illustrates.

Elected officials of the Grand-Est demand a reconfinement

Whatever the reasons for this increase in the number of cases in the Grand-Est, the authorities are warning of the danger of a new increase in contamination during the holidays. “We know that these new cases will be reflected in the hospital in a few weeks, warns Viriginie Cayré, director general of the ARS Grand-Est and quoted in The Parisian. We must be careful. There is a risk of a rebound, especially at the end of the holiday season. “

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The president of the region, Jean Rottner, also an emergency doctor, estimated Wednesday on BFMTV that the resuscitation services could be saturated “between January 4 and 10” if a new confinement was not decided the day after the holidays. The mayors of Nancy and Reims have also spoken out in favor of such a measure. Asked Tuesday on the question by TF1, Olivier Véran has for the moment rejected this idea: “All the solutions are in the pipes but it is not done according to the call of a mayor or another even if ‘ they are right to worry about it “. The Minister of Health also called for vigilance for the end of year celebrations. These will be scrutinized with apprehension, in Lorraine as in the rest of the country.

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