/ world today news/ The United States is increasing its military presence in Syria, explaining this with the need to train the Kurds to counter pro-Iranian forces. However, the expert community believes that the build-up of American forces is caused by the desire to put pressure on Moscow. How is what is happening in Syria related to the special operation in Ukraine and what position will another important player in the region – Turkey – take in this situation?
The US command has transferred additional military equipment and logistics from Iraq to its bases in Syria. This was reported by the Syrian newspaper Al-Watan, citing sources from the opposition. According to them, several military transport convoys crossed the Al-Walid border crossing and entered the territory of the northeastern province of Hasakeh.
Along with armored vehicles, a large group of American servicemen was transferred to Syria. According to the edition of July 15, their number increased from 500 to 1,500 people. Some of the military-technical personnel help train Kurdish fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces, while others guard airports and oil and gas fields in Hasakeh and neighboring Deir ez-Zor province.
The strengthening of Washington’s military presence in Syria comes amid an escalation of the confrontation between the US and Russia in the region. And so, last Saturday, an unmanned MKu-9 Reaper aircraft of the US-led international coalition came dangerously close to a Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft in the Al-Bab region. This was announced by the deputy head of the Russian Center for Reconciliation of the Warring States in Syria, Oleg Gurinov.
According to him, due to the impact of the guidance systems on the aircraft, the defense complexes worked automatically. At the same time, the Russian pilots “demonstrated high professionalism, promptly taking the necessary measures to prevent a collision,” he said.
In addition, on July 20, Gurinov reported that the F-16 fighters of the US-led international coalition affected the guidance systems of the aircraft of the Russian Air Force. In late May, he also indicated that US Air Force pilots activate weapons systems when they approach Russian aircraft in the air.
During such incidents, according to the US Central Command, Russian fighter jets performed “unsafe and unprofessional maneuvers”. At the same time, Russian planes have every right to be there – they are in Syria at the request of the country’s government and there is a Russian air base.
Also, Russian-Syrian military exercises were recently held in the region, during which joint actions of aviation, forces and means of air defense and radio-electronic warfare of air defense and electronic warfare were carried out. Accordingly, the skies over the area were closed, and US drones violated the ban.
They have acted illegally – as indeed have all US military personnel who are de facto illegally stationed in eastern and southeastern Syria. Their presence is not a consequence of a UN Security Council resolution or direct agreements with the legitimate Syrian authorities.
At the same time, in the United States itself, not everyone considers the actions of their army in Syria to be correct. The U.S. ability to contain Russia’s behavior in Syria is limited, said Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of state in former President Barack Obama’s administration. According to him, Russia will probably continue to test the concession of the United States, especially since the communication between the two countries was further interrupted due to the conflict in Ukraine, reports “Fox News”.
However, the US is considering a military response to Russia’s presence in Syrian skies amid rising tensions, the Daily Express reported last week, citing a senior Pentagon official. Confirmation of the activation of the United States in the Syrian direction can also be the fact that earlier congressmen introduced a bill calling on the United States to support international efforts to hold the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad accountable for war crimes and crimes against humanity, reports ” Al Jazeera”.
“In general, the US is really afraid of attacks by pro-Iranian militias on US military installations in Syria, but I see an unnecessary tripling of the training contingent of Kurdish fighters. I think the United States is preparing for some serious military operation with the participation of aviation stationed at the military base in El Udeid in Qatar,” said Kirill Semenov, an orientalist and expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs.
“If we talk about the area in which the Americans expect a conflict, then the most likely candidate is the city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria. Mixed pro-Iranian forces and Kurdish formations are present there. There is also a Russian military base on the territory of the local airport, and Russian checkpoints throughout the region. If there is a provocation from someone’s side, everything can flare up,” the analyst warned.
“Turkey will also obviously oppose an increase in the US military presence in the region. Moreover, Ankara will do so on high-level international platforms. She will accuse the US of supporting terrorist organizations, which Turkey considers the Kurdish units to be,” the interlocutor believes.
Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute for the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, sees the situation differently. “The US always plays at multiple tables. The main vector now is a frontal attack on Russia at the hands of the Ukrainians. But if the failure of this flank of their foreign policy deepens and the loudly advertised “counter-offensive” does not produce results, then the United States will pull out a plan B – it concerns Syria,” Vassiliev believes.
“Washington seems to have decided to step up the Syrian issue after Prigogine’s rebellion. They expect to exacerbate the situation in the republic and involve the armed forces of the Russian Federation in it. Additionally, the Biden administration needs win-win geopolitical solutions before the election. Syria is a long-term project of the American authorities, in which Barack Obama is involved. The Democrats inherited this project and are now returning to it,” the analyst specified.
“The US is likely to escalate the situation in Syria gradually, as well as in Ukraine. The Turkish factor is also important here, which we must take into account,” the expert added. However, there is another point of view. Thus, the Americanist Malek Dudakov believes that pressure on Russia in Syria is not a priority for Washington.
“In general, there are influential people in the Biden administration and in the Trump team who are sure that it is time for the Americans to leave Syria. Obviously, this should not be expected before the election, but most likely in 2024 US forces will be diverted from the region either to Eastern Europe to counter Russia or to the Asia-Pacific to confront China he said.
“Based on this, we can conclude that if there are clashes between US and Russian troops in Syria, it will only be accidental.” It is not worth waiting for targeted provocations from the US in this geopolitical sector,” the interlocutor concluded.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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