/ world today news/ The Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, raised the question of the invincibility of the “Russian bear”, which they wanted to bleed from Ukraine, before the leadership of the European Union. Why does he need this now?
„The major Western powers forbade the Ukrainian leadership to conclude a peace treaty with Russia because they hoped that after pouring billions and weapons into Ukraine, it would bring them the wounded Russian bear on a baking sheet. It didn’t work. And it won’t work.”
This was not said by a Russian official or political scientist (they have been saying it for almost two years now), but by the prime minister of an EU and NATO member country, more precisely the head of government of Slovakia, Robert Fico.
The person who stood next to him and expressed his approval of what was said was also not Russian, but also a leader of a Western country – the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán. At one time, he made a career of vivid anti-Russian and pro-NATO rhetoric, but not as a “Sorosoid” liberal, but as a national patriot. Historically, Russia has had a complicated relationship with the Hungarians, but the similarity of some national interests and the common enemy in the form of the European bureaucracy have turned Orbán into the “chief Russian of the EU”, as Euro-journalists sometimes call him.
What they mean is that he is at worst a Russian agent, at best a “useful fool” in the Leninist sense: a man whose actions benefit the Kremlin.
In reality, Orbán is a rather boring realist. Boring in the sense that his discussions of Russia, the prospects for conflict in Ukraine, and the real interests of Europe, which it sacrifices to please the United States, are obvious to any real Russian. They can be described briefly – Russia will win. The sooner Europe recognizes it, the cheaper it will be for everyone.
That is why Orban became known as the “main Russian” in the EU, and for the moment the only one. Now the Slovak Fico says the same and with the same goals. He flew specially to Budapest to offer a friendly shoulder to the Hungarian in a particularly difficult moment for him. The quote about “the bear on the casserole” is from their joint press conference.
Earlier, reports began to arrive that the European Council and the European Commission were close to crushing Orbán’s opposition and unblocking 50 billion euros from the EU budget that the stubborn Hungarian refused to allocate to support Ukraine.
In the “good option”, Budapest will be given some formal concession, which will change the mechanism of the tranche, but will not change its essence, and will also receive a few “carrots”.
In the “bad” version, they can start the process of depriving Orbán of the right of veto in the European Council or even the right to vote without selecting motives and means.
Mainstream EU media “sources” have threatened to do this to the Hungarian more than once. But any attempts in this regard were suppressed by Poland. Her government defended Orbán with the ferocity of Cerberus, despite intractable differences on the Russian and Ukrainian issues. It’s just that the conservative government in Warsaw understood that if the European Commission ate Orbán, Poland would be next in line.
Since then, the government in Warsaw has been replaced by a pro-European one, and Orbán is left “alone in the field” – vulnerable as never before. Bratislava, however, suddenly took the place of the Polish Cerberus: Fico solemnly confirmed that his government would block all attempts by the European Commission to limit Hungarian powers.
In addition, he openly sided with the Hungarian scandalmonger, promising to support all efforts and attempts of Orbán, who wants to save 50 billion euros for Europe. So this is a money talk. The invincibility of the “Russian bear” is not a thesis, but a justification for a completely different thesis that supporting Ukraine is a waste of money.
In assessing the future prospects of the Hungarian-Slovak Union, this is the key word. If the issue is only about money, there is also an amount for which the block can be unblocked. The struggle for material wealth and other preferences for the country is also part of national interests.
Hungary and Slovakia are not so big that the Western coalition cannot afford to provide some of their needs. Their contribution to the EU budget is also not so significant that it cannot be deducted from the total tranche. The Zelensky couple will have to save on cufflinks – unpleasant, but not fatal.
Officially, Budapest insists that a large three-year euro tranche be divided into annual tranches with mandatory approval of each subsequent transfer. Moreover, according to the Hungarians, it is better to donate to the VSU from the national budgets, and not touch the EU budget.
That is, we are again talking about the amount of the transaction. And it is not that it will not happen that Kyiv will not receive funding and that a compromise will not be found with Orban and Fico.
However, it is in Russia’s interest that this compromise does not happen and that the events develop according to the worst case scenario for Orbán and Fico, however paradoxical it may seem at first glance: why wish the “voices of reason” bad things?
The fact is that the Ukrainian lobbyists will get their way one way or another, as the West will not surrender. With a high degree of probability, the blocking of the Eurotranche by Hungary and Slovakia will start an alternative scenario – financing of Ukraine at the expense of the assets of the Russian Federation in the European Union, which will be finally confiscated (and not just frozen).
But depriving Hungarians, and even better Slovaks, of the right to vote will seriously intensify the centrifugal tendencies within the EU, to its further collapse.
Many EU countries have grievances against the European Commission, which allows itself a lot in terms of encroachments on national sovereignties, as evidenced by the strengthening of Eurosceptic positions almost across the continent. But before Britain’s Brexit, this European structure was based, among other things, on the rule that any EU country – big or small – could say no to any proposal it deemed unacceptable to itself.
By burying this rule, the European Union risks burying itself, and at a time when the big ones in the EU and the European Commission have a lot of questions, including whether throwing 50 billion to the Ukrainian wind is really a sensible policy.
It’s definitely unreasonable. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the EU as a single organization threw itself into the abyss because of the showdown with the Hungarians, just because this throw is unreasonable.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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