From the widespread mpox outbreak (formerly called monkeypox, monkeypox) in 2022, then the current evolving bird flu situation, to the recent case of Marburg virus in Equatorial Guinea, Central Africa, we find that COVID is not dominating the headlines like before. On the other hand, we often hear of new or re-emerging virus outbreaks.
Is the incidence of viral outbreaks increasing? Or, is our ability to detect outbreaks better thanks to the rapid technological innovations during the COVID pandemic? The answer may be a little bit of both.
There are an estimated 1.67 million unidentified viruses currently infecting mammals and birds. Of these, approximately 827 thousand of them have the potential to infect humans.
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To understand how viruses arose, we need to go back to the beginning of life on Earth. There are several theories about how the first viruses appeared, but all agree that they have been around for billions of years. They evolved with living things. When there is a disturbance to this stable co-evolution, problems may arise.
The main driver for the emergence of viruses in the human population is people and their actions. Since agriculture became a common practice more than 10,000 years ago, humans have come into closer contact with animals. This change increases the chance for viruses that naturally infect these animals to “jump” to humans.
The above events are called zoonoses. There are about 75 percent of newly emerging infectious diseases caused by zoonotic events.
As human civilization and technology advances, the destruction of animal habitats forces them to move to new areas in search of food sources. Different species that were usually unrelated are now forced to share space.
Add humans to this phenomenon and you have the perfect recipe for a new virus to emerge.
Urbanization led to high population densities, creating an ideal environment for the spread of viruses. The rapid development of cities is often not accompanied by adequate infrastructure such as sanitation and health care, which further increases the possibility of a virus outbreak.
Climate change has also contributed to the spread of the virus. For example, arboviruses (which are spread by arthropods such as mosquitoes) spread to new areas as more countries become ideal places for mosquitoes to survive – a result of warmer climates.
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We (viral scientists) have known these factors for a long time. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) did not surprise any virologist or epidemiologist. It is only a matter of when – not if – a pandemic will occur. What was unexpected was the scale of the COVID pandemic, and the difficulty of effectively limiting the spread of the virus.
Nor can we predict the impact of misinformation on other areas of public health. Anti-vaccination sentiment in particular has become more prevalent on social media over the past few years. We are also seeing an increasing level of doubt about vaccines.
There have also been disruptions to routine childhood immunization programmes. This increases the risk of outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles.
Lessons in Surveillance
During the COVID pandemic, science is moving at an unprecedented pace. Methods for detection are constantly evolving, so monitoring of outbreaks and the evolution of viruses is getting better.
Now, many of the scientists involved in tracking SARS-CoV-2 are also turning their attention to monitoring other viruses.
For example, wastewater monitoring has been used extensively to detect SARS-CoV-2 during a pandemic. Such monitoring methods can also help track other viruses that threaten human health.
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When a person is infected with a virus, some of the genetic material from that virus is usually flushed down the toilet. Wastewater is able to show if the number of infections in an area is increasing, even before the number of cases begins to increase in hospitals.
Adapting this technology to look for other viruses such as influenza, measles or even polio could provide us with valuable data about the timing of viral outbreaks. This is already happening to some degree – poliovirus was detected in wastewater in London during 2022, for example.
This increased surveillance of the virus will naturally result in more reported outbreaks of the virus. While some may perceive this as a scare, information like this could be key to tackling future pandemics. If an outbreak occurs in an area that does not have an adequate virus control system in place, the infection will likely spread too far to be contained.
Nonetheless, surveillance is only one part of preparedness for a pandemic. Governments and health and science agencies around the world need to have pandemic and virus emergence protocols in place (and regularly update them). The hope is that we are not in a hurry to understand the situation which may be too late.
COVID is unlikely to be the last pandemic that many people alive today will witness. Hopefully next time we will be more prepared.
Lindsay Broadbent, Lecturer in Virology, University of Surrey
This article was first published by The Conversationan independent source of news and analysis from academia and the research community channeled directly to the public.
The opinions expressed in the article do not represent the views of Magdalene.co and are the sole responsibility of the author.
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