After the OPS of Intesa Sanpaolo and UBI Banca, many expected a new season and radical changes for Italian banks. The sector has been in deep crisis for several years and many stocks of primary institutes they still lose 80/90% from the highs reached in previous years.
Today we will try to understand why Italian banks continue not to go up, rather to go down to Piazza Affari.
Our analysis will start from the evaluation of the financial statements of the last few years using the discounted cash flow model and then go on to report the consensus and the recommendations of the analysts and then define the pulse of the situation from a graphic point of view. Finally, we will give our buy / sell judgment for each share analyzed.
What are the stocks we are going to analyze?
Banco BPM, Bca MPS, BPER Banca, Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit (MIL: UCG).
Banco BPM, last price 1.6725. Fair value at 1.00. Consensus of analysts at 1.58. Multi-month upward trend with the first target at 3/6 months in the 2.06 area. Stop loss at 1.3564.
Bca MPS, last price 1.207. Fair value not calculable. Consensus of analysts at 1.36. Multi-month downward trend with first target at 3/6 months in the 0.9950 area. Stop loss at 1.412.
BPER Bank, last price 1.17. Fair value at 0.59. Consensus of analysts at 2.12. Multi-month downward trend with first target at 3/6 months in the 0.9950 area. Stop loss at 1.412.
Intesa Sanpaolo, last price 1.6782. Fair value at 1.14. Consensus of analysts at 2.09. Multi-month downward trend with first target at 3/6 months in the 1.3062 area. Stop loss at 1.8237.
Unicredit, last price 7.426. Fair value at 3.81. Consensus of analysts at 9.32. Multi-month downward trend with the first target at 3/6 months in the 6.012 area. Stop loss at 8.366.
Why do Italian banks continue not to go up or rather to go down to Piazza Affari?
The study of financial statements and charts, except for the case of Banco BPM which remains overvalued, does not encourage purchases either in the short or medium-long term. It is not a bargain to buy Italian banks and for this reason we are looking for other opportunities at a good price in Piazza Affari.
We will proceed step by step.
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