Nord Stream 2 is already 98% ready, but its launch is still in question. A few days ago, Poland decided to punish two German-owned vessels flying the Polish flag that are helping to build the pipeline. The United States also previously promised a new package of sanctions regarding the project in May.
But will all this be able to stop the already almost completed construction, and why, despite all the opposition, they continue to work on the project – read the material OBOZREVATEL.
What is the situation with Nord Stream 2 now?
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Nord Stream 2 is a gas transmission system that passes through the exclusive economic zones and territorial waters of Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany.
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The project is estimated at 9.5 billion euros… It is being implemented by Gazprom in an alliance with European companies Engie, Uniper, OMV, Shell, Wintershall.
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This construction is actively opposed by Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic countries and the United States. They believe that because of this project, Europe may become dependent on Russian gas, and for Kiev, this may provoke and loss of $ 3 billion in transit profit annually.
At the end of 2019, due to US sanctions, construction stopped for about a year. Many foreign companies left the project, but two months ago the work started again. Mainly by the efforts of two Russian pipelayers: Fortuna and Akademik Chersky.
According to the Russian side, the project is now 98% complete. They plan to finish the work by September… But in practice, the possibility of launching the pipeline remains questionable and regularly faces obstacles.
In particular, a few days ago, sanctions against two ships flying the Polish flag and helping construction were imposed by Poland. The director of the Maritime Office in Gdynia, Wieslaw Pietrzkowski, announced that due to the highest necessity and for the purpose of state security, the safety documents for the ships Krebs Geo and Krebs Jet are no longer valid.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken also stated that US considers construction of Nord Stream 2 a bad idea and may increase sanctions against participating companies… Congress has already prepared a new package of sanctions and passed them as binding law.
There is opposition to the project in Germany itself. Two environmental organizations demanded the withdrawal of the building permit due to changes in environmental standards for work in the water area. Because of which the barge “Fortune” in German waters will probably not be able to work.
Why is construction going on despite the sanctions?
For a long time, construction was indeed in a frozen state. But after the American elections, the Kremlin and Berlin decided to take advantage of the transition period in the new administration and quickly finish construction. They hoped that while the United States was solving personnel issues, Nord Stream 2 would remain out of attention.
“But the situation does not look as rosy for Russia and Germany as they are trying to present,” says the president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy 21” Mihail Gončar… – The parties are looking for ways to get around the sanctions. But this does not mean that the United States will simply watch and issue diplomatic statements about the inadmissibility of this project. In America, there is growing pressure on the Biden administration from Congress. There are demands to apply all possible measures. “
The launch of the project is also being lobbied by the operator company, the Swiss “Nord Stream 2 AG”. But for the Swiss, only the launch itself is important. Because under the terms of the agreement, regardless of transit, they will receive about $ 1.4 billion annually from Gazprom for the provision of transport services over the next 50 years. This condition must be met even if the gas will not be pumped at all.
“The launching ceremony is important here, because with it a corruption-generating stream will be launched,” Gonchar says. “Initially, in a test mode, the new gas pipeline is pumped minuscule. gas pipeline “.
Therefore, even if for some reason the gas pipeline will not be able to work after launch, or will operate at minimum capacity, this will not affect the operating company.
Will they be able to finish building the gas pipeline?
Due to the fact that the project is already at the final stage and too much money has been invested in it, it is impossible to completely stop construction, told OBOZREVATEL TeleTrade analyst Sergey Rodler.
“Even if the current government loses in the elections in Germany at the end of the year and the” greens “come to replace it (they accuse Russia of violating human rights and are much less willing to maintain pragmatic relations with it), then construction may be delayed, but absolutely not complete, “he says.
Vadim Glamazdin, advisor to the head of the board of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy, has a different opinion. He is confident that a new package of sanctions from the United States can completely stop work: “As far as we know, the US administration is ready to apply these sanctions, but some technical details are being decided now,” Glamazdin said. “I would say that today the probability of stopping this project is very high. Until the work is stopped, the probability of such sanctions is close to 100%. Therefore, we believe that this pipeline will not be completed. “
Will the gas pipeline work?
Whether Nord Stream 2 will actually supply gas after completion is another question. First of all, he will have problems with certification and insurance. The companies that should be doing this have left the project. You also need to do a lot of work, without which the pipe will remain just a pipe and will not be able to function. Moreover, US sanctions can stop work at almost any moment.
According to Gonchar, the delay in new sanctions from the US administration may be part of a strategy to stop the project at its most painful stage.
“The next wave of sanctions may affect the Swiss Nord Stream 2 AG. This would be quite logical and could have been resorted to earlier. But perhaps Washington believes that it is necessary to let the Putin regime bury as much money as possible at the bottom of the Baltic, but only then finally stop, “- says Gonchar.
At the same time, Vadim Glamazdin does not exclude the possibility that Russia may try to circumvent the law and force the Europeans to pump gas through this pipe in other ways.
“You can remember what Russia did with transit from Turkmenistan. They just blew up a pipe in their territory. And since 2009, not a single cubic meter of Turkmen gas has been supplied to Europe. And before that they supplied 50 billion a year. Can they blow up the pipes that go towards Ukraine? In theory, they can. But in practice, I don’t know. Everything will depend on how the Europeans behave, “the expert summed up.
It is quite difficult to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, since not only Russia is interested in it, but also private European companies. But opposition from the United States can indeed provoke serious problems. And Nord Stream 2 may face the fate of South Stream, after which the pipes had to be dismantled.
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