/ world today news/ A peace treaty for Karabakh can be concluded as early as June 1, Azerbaijani diplomats said. This will take place at the meeting of the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, scheduled on the sidelines of the high-level meeting of the European political community, that is, under the auspices of the West. True, the Armenian Foreign Ministry does not share the optimism of its colleagues from Baku. But another thing is curious – why do the two former Soviet republics, which have been at war since 1988, prefer to reconcile not in Moscow?
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan may sign a peace agreement on June 1 during the European Political Community summit in Moldova. This was announced on Friday by the ambassador of Azerbaijan to France, former press secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic, Leyla Abdulaeva. “We hope that a peace treaty will finally be signed on June 1 in Chisinau. This is a historical moment that should not be missed,” Abdulaeva said.
According to the agency, citing diplomatic sources, on the sidelines of the meeting, Pashinyan and Aliyev will hold talks with the mediation of the leaders of France and Germany, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz.
The signing of a peace treaty is possible in the foreseeable future, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Friday. However, according to him, no one is chasing time.
“Indeed, yesterday Presidents Putin, Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan reached agreements and gave instructions to the respective Deputy Prime Ministers to meet next week, that is, in a week. It will be the end of next week. They will meet in Moscow and specify the problems that exist, a basic understanding of how to solve them, but we still need to agree on the details,” Peskov said. Judging by this statement, the parties will not deal before June 1.
Baku and Yerevan are really close to reconciliation, Washington admits.
“We appreciate the recent comments by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan’s mutual recognition of territorial integrity and consistent commitment to peace. A final agreement is close, and we are determined to help our friends achieve it,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
Why Chisinau and not Moscow or Minsk
The fact that the peace agreement will be signed somewhere in Europe, I think, should not worry us, believes Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor in the European studies department at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University.
“Three actors worked to bring peace to Transcaucasia: Russia, the United States and the EU. In principle, our efforts can be called proportional. This is also remembered in Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the interlocutor emphasizes.
“However, it is probably important for Baku and Yerevan to show that they are independent from Moscow participants in the global international process. In 2020, both countries were brought to the negotiating table by the Russian Federation, but since then the countries have significantly diversified their foreign relations. In the end, it is not so important where the peace was signed. It is much more important that it will be concluded,” says Tkachenko.
The deal with Baku will certainly cause opposition protests in Yerevan, the expert believes. “In my opinion, the dissatisfaction of the people in Armenia cannot be avoided. The subject of Nagorno-Karabakh is extremely important for the local population both historically and politically. However, war fatigue is growing in society. “Gradually, there is an understanding that Yerevan is not able to change the course of the conflict at the present moment,” said Tkachenko.
“These factors will make the protests relatively short-lived. The decision is difficult and not easy, but I think that in the end Armenians will accept it as practically no alternative,” the professor summarizes.
Last Monday, Pashinyan made a sensational announcement that Armenia and Azerbaijan mutually recognize territorial integrity within the Soviet administrative borders. This means that Yerevan also considers Karabakh to be part of Azerbaijan, a region over which the two republics have been at war since the late 1980s.
On Thursday, at the EAIS summit, Pashinyan reiterated this thesis in the presence of the leaders of Russia and Azerbaijan, Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev. According to him, on this basis, Yerevan and Baku are moving towards settling relations. At the same time, the Armenian leader recalled the rights and security of the residents of Karabakh within the framework of the international mechanism and expressed hope that “a normal, constructive dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert” will begin in a short time.
„The risk of ethnic cleansing’
Judging by the public reservations of politicians, the fate of Armenians living in Karabakh is one of the main obstacles to the reconciliation of the two former Soviet republics.
Both in Stepanakert (the Azerbaijani name is Khankendi) and in Yerevan itself, there are fears that mass deportations await the region if it is taken over by Azerbaijani troops. Pashinyan’s ally, the secretary of the Security Council of the Republic Armen Grigoryan, for example, spoke of the risk of “ethnic cleansing”.
It is noteworthy that he spoke about this again in the West – when he visited the Brussels headquarters of NATO in mid-May. NKR leader Araik Harutyunyan this week called on Pashinyan to take back his words about recognizing Azerbaijan within the 1991 borders, adding that “the people of Artsakh have the right to self-defense.”
No ethnic deportations are planned in Baku, commented Rafik Ismailov from the Russian-Azerbaijani Expert Council.
“President Aliyev long ago told the Armenians living in Karabakh that there is a mechanism to accept Azerbaijani citizenship. The application can be submitted even remotely, by phone. That is, Armenians are faced with a simple choice: if you don’t want to accept an Azerbaijani passport, you can leave, the way across the border to Armenia is open,” said the political scientist from Baku.
“Of course, those who are wanted in Azerbaijan are not released from responsibility even if they get citizenship. But this applies mainly to the top of the separatist regime. And all other residents – please. Baku considers them de facto its citizens. It remains only to become de jure. Today, only the separatist regime prevents residents of Armenia from obtaining Azerbaijani citizenship,” the source said.
“Tomorrow, will young people of Armenian origin be able to easily enter the military or police academy in Baku or take positions in the government of Karabakh?” Yes, today it is difficult for many to imagine such a thing. There are certain emotional problems. But the Azerbaijani state offers the status of full citizenship. Accordingly, ethnic Armenians will be able to enjoy all the rights enjoyed by other citizens of Azerbaijan, including ethnic minorities. Let me remind you that many other minorities live in our republic, not only Armenians. There cannot be a ban on holding any office. We do not have second-class citizens,” emphasizes Ismailov.
“Of course, in any post-conflict society there is a certain path to follow, to gradually restore trust, to establish a full range of relationships between residents of Armenian origin and other citizens. Such integration always takes time”, recalls the interlocutor.
It is possible that the Russian peacekeeping contingent will remain in the region even if a peace treaty is signed in Chisinau on June 1. “Most likely, the agreement will not mention the fate of the Russian peacekeeping contingent currently stationed in Karabakh,” Ismailov said. According to him, this issue will be resolved at the negotiations between Baku and Moscow.
Meanwhile, Yerevan confirmed that a meeting of the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan is scheduled for June 1 in Chisinau, but declined to confirm plans for a peace treaty.
Discussions on the settlement of relations, in particular on the agreement “On peace and the establishment of interstate relations”, continue, the Armenian Foreign Ministry announced. Yerevan has repeatedly noted that it will sign the agreement when key issues are resolved, the department added. “We believe that their discussion will continue during and after the meeting planned within the framework of the European Political Community in Chisinau on June 1. The signing of this agreement is not included in the agenda of the meeting in Chisinau,” the Armenian Foreign Ministry summarized.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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