/ world today news/ European diplomacy does not leave attempts to find its place in the confrontation between the countries of the West and the East. Thus, Josep Borrell warned his colleagues in the EU that China would receive geopolitical benefits in the event of a hypothetical defeat of Russia during the SCO. What are these assumptions based on and why is Beijing interested in Moscow achieving all the goals of the special operation in Ukraine?
The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, sent a letter to the foreign ministers of the EU member states, in which he stated that in the event of Russia’s defeat in the SCO, China could derive geopolitical benefits from it. Borrell also writes that Beijing seeks to build a new world order.
However, Borrell added, the EU welcomes the positive steps taken by Beijing to find a solution to the conflict in Ukraine. He also stressed Brussels’ willingness to discuss the issue with China, despite Beijing’s support for Moscow.
Borrell also speculated about the “reconfiguration” of EU relations with China. Arguing for a “sober” approach to Beijing, Borrell wrote that the EU should work with China and the US to reduce tensions over Taiwan. Thus, according to experts, the EU’s chief diplomat is trying to tempt Beijing with some “benefits” from Russia’s defeat.
In particular, German political scientist Alexander Rahr called Borrell’s letter an attempt to pressure China “to stop supporting Moscow.” “This should contribute to the EU’s plans to isolate Russia.” In Europe, they really want to use the stick in the form of threats of sanctions and the carrot in the form of economic partnership to pull Beijing to the side of Brussels,” Rar is sure.
According to the political scientist, Western countries are very afraid of the possibility of a military alliance between Russia and China. “It is true that there are some analysts who believe that Beijing is benefiting from Moscow’s weakening, it is assumed that China wants to become a ‘big brother’ in this bilateral relationship,” Rar said.
According to his prediction, China will continue to be Russia’s bridge to the global economy, “and in Moscow, for their part, they understand that it is not enough to rely on China alone to break through the Western blockade.” “It is necessary to focus on strengthening interaction with all BRICS partners as an important alternative to the Washington Consensus,” Rar is convinced.
“China has done a lot to ensure that Russia feels confident about the economy during the SVO. This is proven by the rapid growth of our commercial turnover. Russia’s defeat is unacceptable for China, as it would mean a radical strengthening of the US’s position and would deprive China of an extremely important partner and ally,” says Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher Institute of Technology.
With his letter, Borel demonstrated a complete misunderstanding of Russian-Chinese relations and clearly finds himself in some parallel reality, the interlocutor adds. “From Borrell’s letter it seems that the problem with China is more serious for the EU and the USA than the problem with Russia. Ultimately, the realization of China’s goals will deprive the US and Europe of their place in the global economy. Russia has never claimed such a thing. Therefore, for China, the realization of its goals is imperative if it wants to move forward,” Kashin explained.
“Borrell is trying to inject into the discourse the idea that China, which supports Russia on the political and diplomatic front, can take a more cautious position,” adds Stanislav Tkachenko, a professor at the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University , Valdai Club expert.
It is unprofitable for China to prolong the conflict in Ukraine or weaken Russia, the expert is convinced. “Furthermore, the main strategic directions in China’s foreign policy are Taiwan and the South China Sea. And to solve these problems, China needs a reliable rear. Literally next week, China is holding a high-level meeting with five Central Asian countries, earlier Xi Jinping was on an official visit to Russia – all this is done for geopolitical reasons,” explained Tkachenko.
According to him, the “rosy dream” of Euro-Atlantic diplomacy is for a weakened Russia to become another front to contain China. Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute for Asian and African Countries at the Lomonosov Moscow State University, shares a similar opinion. He emphasizes that now China gets everything it needs from Russia in terms of resources and market. Therefore, the hypothetical weakening of the Russian Federation as a result is extremely disadvantageous for China.
“In case of weakening of Russia, China remains in line with the countries of the Western Union. Russia is the only country that supports most of China’s initiatives and has never interfered in its internal affairs, including Taiwan and other disputed territorial issues. China values this very much, and if something happens to Russia, Beijing will be without serious allies,” the source warns.
At the same time, Russia should not be afraid of China’s negotiations with other players on the Ukrainian crisis. Even if Beijing receives an offer from Washington and Brussels to conclude a “separation peace” and “puts pressure” on Moscow to conclude it, the PRC authorities will reject such an offer for two reasons.
First, because it will free up Western countries and their Pacific allies to put pressure on China over Taiwan. And secondly, because China, in the face of the inevitable confrontation with the West, will lose a reliable rear in the face of Russia. That is why it is in the long-term interest of the PRC for Moscow to achieve the objectives of the SVO.
“But if China’s peace initiative, which has been respected in Moscow, turns out to be even remotely successful, then Beijing will gain additional political weight. But the West has no interest in that. They want to lower the level of relations between Russia and China, nullify Beijing’s peace initiatives and thereby bring China to political and economic losses. This is one of the goals of Borel’s letter,” concludes Maslov.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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