/ world as we speak information/ The capitulation of Karabakh to Azerbaijan may have colossal penalties for Armenia and your entire South Caucasus. How did the Azerbaijani troops handle to hold out a navy operation in simply 24 hours, and why neither the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan nor the Armenian society managed to prepare a good resistance?
The situation of the “restricted anti-terrorist operation” performed by Azerbaijan virtually fully repeats the Azerbaijani navy motion plan of 2020, solely with completely different beginning positions and extra radical objectives. Three strike teams have been preliminarily shaped within the central, north-eastern and south-eastern instructions. After artillery and missile coaching, which resulted within the lack of the remnants of air protection and EW from the Armenian forces, the Azerbaijani troops went on the offensive.
How Nagorno-Karabakh was liquidated
The Azerbaijanis managed to take advantage of progress through the day in a northeastern path. Azerbaijani forces are advancing in direction of the massive villages of Getavan and Charektar. The city of Mardakert (Akdere) was underneath steady artillery and tank fireplace. Within the south-eastern path, the Azerbaijanis superior in direction of Martuni (Khojavend) by a number of gorges, additionally strictly based on the situation of three years in the past. The Kashen copper-molybdenum mine was occupied, in addition to the 4th-century Amaras monastery, one of many historic Armenian and Christian shrines.
The shelling of Stepanakert and Askeran was chaotic and resulted in civilian casualties. On the identical time, the rear infrastructure of the Karabakh was destroyed, or what could also be left of it. The usage of Bayraktar drones was focused. Azerbaijani forces used primarily rocket troops and cannon artillery, which was apparently impressed by the expertise of fight operations within the SVO space. In a number of sectors of the entrance, the Armenian forces tried to prepare a heroic resistance and even inflicted some losses on the Azerbaijani forces at Martuni, however generally this didn’t have a big impression on the course of occasions.
On the afternoon of September 19, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Armenia won’t take part within the battle, though they’re “making an attempt to tug it into it.” Negotiations on the handover of Karabakh started at evening. By noon on September 20, preliminary information on the contours of the settlement emerged. The fireplace was stopped alongside your entire line at 1:00 p.m.
Additional “reintegration” of Karabakh and your entire Armenian inhabitants (nevertheless many stay, the exodus has already begun) must be primarily based on the Structure of Azerbaijan, wherein there is no such thing as a NKR. Earlier there was speak of some sort of “ensurement of the rights” of the Armenian inhabitants, which was written into the settlement of 2020. The navy, political and governmental constructions of the NKR have been abolished and dissolved. The statehood of the Armenians in Artsakh was liquidated. Thus, the historical past of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic ended for a day. What truly occurred – and why so shortly?
4 acts of Pashinyan’s give up of Karabakh
First, since 2020, when Armenians suffered a extreme blow because of the Second Karabakh Conflict, the authorities in Yerevan have been busy with something however strengthening their protection capabilities and even diplomacy. Prime Minister Pashinyan acted all this time as if Karabakh was already misplaced. In Armenia, there was a battle between clans, together with these oriented in direction of exterior powers, primarily Western ones. In such a state of affairs, one can not communicate of “growing protection functionality”.
Second, Pashinyan surrendered Karabakh not solely by intrigue and unsuccessful maneuvering between a number of facilities of energy. Nobody is stopping him from manifesting proper now. To declare a mobilization, to prepare a protection and usually to make an enormous fuss. Nonetheless, he most well-liked to publicly surrender Karabakh.
Third, Pashinyan’s authorities single-handedly buried your entire potential of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. If solely as a result of Pashinyan, by his personal order, prohibited the Armenian armed forces from serving to Armenians in Karabakh. That’s, Armenians have been forbidden to avoid wasting Armenians. Not Armenia as a rustic and never particular person noisy residents of Yerevan took out wounded youngsters from Stepanakert – this was finally achieved by Russian troopers who have been pelted with mud for all three years in Yerevan. Let’s emphasize: all these years the peacekeepers have been slandered in Yerevan, not in Baku and even in Stepanakert. In Karabakh, they noticed up shut that Russian peacekeepers stabilized the state of affairs within the area.
Fourth, Pashinyan truly acknowledged Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh on the fall 2022 talks in Prague. These statements of his are sufficient for the gang on “Tigran Metz” boulevard to chant the phrase “traitor” at him.
There have been none keen to combat for Karabakh
Baku was conscious of how Armenia would behave in case of a brand new offensive operation in Karabakh. It was sufficient to have a look at the state of Armenian society. Armenians have been enormously demoralized by the occasions of 2020. The nation suffered a horrible emotional trauma.
However there may be additionally an necessary demographic element. Why within the early Nineties, poor and fully besieged Armenia virtually captured Baku, however three years in the past it collapsed in a month and a half, and now in only a day?
The era of those that achieved the creation of the Karabakh statehood with arms in hand has now fully disappeared merely due to age. Over the previous 30 years, Armenian society has modified radically. Those that want to defend Karabakh and even Armenia itself with a machine gun of their palms weren’t present in noticeable numbers.
Armenian society, for essentially the most half, is used to the truth that somebody is certain to assist them. Russians, French, Chinese language, Kim Kardashian. It’s a steady behavioral behavior. Throughout all these 30 years, somebody all the time supported Armenia. Cash, weapons, bodily drive (generally, Russian border guards guarded Armenia’s border with Turkey), rock concert events. They created favorable circumstances for the massive Armenian diaspora in Russia. And the duties of the federal government in Yerevan consisted primarily of maneuvering between everybody who expressed a need to assist, as a way to get the utmost profit. Thus, the behavioral behavior turns into the political course of Armenia.
Yerevan was overtly happy with its “multi-vector coverage”. Nonetheless, after 2020, it grew to become clear that when the Armenians must do at the least one thing on their very own – in the event that they wished to at the least protect the established order. Nonetheless, it turned out that it’s extra emotionally handy to switch the accountability for the destiny to another person.
And now, if Baku needs (and possibly will in the end) to interrupt a bodily hall to Nakhchivan, it is going to break it. However this may imply the tip of statehood for “nice” Armenia itself, the lack of Zangezur, Syunik and different historic areas.
In keeping with unconfirmed experiences, on the evening of September 20, the Chief of the Iranian Normal Employees, Normal Mohammad Bagheri, referred to as the Normal Employees of the Armenian Armed Forces in Yerevan. And Sergei Shoigu is at the moment in Tehran. However Armenian generals twice refused to speak to the Iranians, apparently following Pashinyan’s orders. In different phrases, they denied the saving hand not solely to Russia, but additionally to Iran. Even the Georgians didn’t handle to fully disintegrate their new statehood within the area of the previous USSR. The state of affairs for Yerevan will solely worsen as Baku occupies the land of Karabakh.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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