“Why a Ukrainian counteroffensive may not lead to significant results, according to expert Mark Galeotti”

The British Sunday Times published an article by Prof. Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russia and the author of over 20 books. In it he notes that despite the wishes of the Ukrainian military and politicians, a counteroffensive by the armed forces of Ukraine will most likely not lead to significant results, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to delay itincluding for political reasons.

British officers who have worked with the Ukrainian military report that Ukrainian forces are determined, Galeotti said. On the other hand, according to leaked US intelligence estimates, Ukraine is unlikely to achieve much more than modest territorial gains.

“So far, the Ukrainian military has demonstrated not only skill and determination, but also imagination,” the author wrote, noting the Ukrainian army’s defensive successes in the first phase of the conflict.

The Ukrainians also often managed to surprise the Russians at the operational and strategic level, such as during the Kharkiv Offensive. Striking at a time when Moscow’s attention was focused on the south and in areas where Russian troops were thin, they managed to capture more than 12,000 square kilometers in one month.

However, while the Ukrainians are rapidly mastering 230 new and upgraded Western tanks and 1,550 other armored vehicles, they still lack the appropriate air defenses for a major offensive. Western experts are also unsure whether senior commanders will be able to adapt to the new systems as well as the soldiers who operate them.

“However, Kiev has no real choice but to launch a major spring or summer offensive. Its leaders are increasingly backing themselves into a corner,” Galeotti said. President Zelensky skillfully manages the West, but in order to retain its support, he must show what in Washington rather tastelessly call “return on investment”.

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Zelensky also needs to balance domestic politics. Hawks like Kirill Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, do not want to hear of talks with Moscow, even though some in the government think the time is now right for them.

Western countries also have their limitations. In addition to difficulties, including political ones, with the delivery of new modern weapons systems (F-16 fighters or ATACMS long-range missiles), there is an acute problem of the lack of ammunition.

Currently, the Ukrainians spend more 155mm shells in a month than the US produces in a year, reminds Galeotti. The West is investing in new production facilities, but this takes time.

Moscow is aware of this and is preparing for defense.

According to Ukrainian estimates, confirmed by the British Ministry of Defence, the number of Russian casualties fell by almost a third as a result. More and more trenches and fortifications are visible on satellite images, especially along the likely lines of a Ukrainian offensive in the south.

Indeed, Russia also has problems, the author notes. The Russians also lack ammunition and precision-guided missiles.

“What’s more, Putin wants success, but the more aggressive Russian operations are, the more losses Russian troops suffer, and the sooner he will again face a difficult choice – how to compensate for the lack of soldiers,” Galeotti wrote.

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To compensate for the losses, either a new wave of mobilization or the sending of conscripts to the front will be necessary. Both options will be unpopular, and Putin is in a rush to make such decisions, especially before regional elections in September.

“Thus, while forces beyond Zelensky’s control push Kiev to attack, Moscow reluctantly prepares to defend itself, relying only on the hope of overcoming Ukraine’s will to resist and the West’s willingness to fund it,” Galeotti wrote. “This is practically the only strategy that Putin can accept.”

The author also notes that Russia’s international role is declining, despite bellicose statements from the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Moscow has avoided direct provocations against NATO, such as avoiding strikes on western arms delivery routes to Ukraine and avoiding flights near the bloc’s borders.

“Even those countries that Moscow once considered second-rate powers now have the right to veto certain aspects of Russian policy, or at least the ability to demand a high price for their aid,” Galeotti reminded, pointing to Turkey and Iran as examples that now are increasingly active in regions that Moscow once considered its own.

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“The longer the war lasts and the more damage is done to the Russian economy, the more China gains power,” notes the author. – Despite upbeat communiques since President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia in March, Beijing has yet to provide the weapons, ammunition or even the unconditional political support that Putin wanted.

“Although both sides have considerable tactical freedom, they are constrained strategically,” the author concludes. “Ukraine should launch a big attack; Russia should try to deprive them of victory.”

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