Who won tonight’s debate (dawn in Portugal) between the presidential candidates of the United States of America, Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
According to the first polls from the US station CNN (conducted by SSRS) and CSB News (conducted by YouGov), the advantage goes to the Democratic candidate, who will have at least managed to retain the advantage over Donald Trump guaranteed by the polls previous to the debate.
The CNN poll is the one that gives Joe Biden the most striking advantage. According to this, six out of ten people who saw the debate consider that the Democratic candidate did better than Donald Trump. The Republican candidate and current president was seen as the winner by only 28% of the viewers heard in this poll, done with the support of the software SSRS.
There are other relevant data brought by the CNN survey. According to the season, before the debate 56% of future viewers of the media confrontation already said they expected Joe Biden to have a better performance, while 43% considered that the most likely winner was Donald Trump. The Democrat may have added some points, as only 28% of the viewers heard after the debate gave Trump an advantage – far less than the 43% who expected him.
In the CNN poll, two-thirds of the people considered the Democratic candidate’s responses more reliable and truthful than those of Donald Trump (65% for Biden, 29% for Trump), with 69% of viewers hearing that the former’s attacks Obama’s vice president to Trump were just. Trump’s attacks on Biden were considered fair by only 32% of viewers listened to in the CNN poll.
The themes on which the viewers heard in the CNN poll consider Joe Biden to be better were racial inequalities (66% trusted Biden more than Trump on this topic, 29% trusted Trump more), the area of health (Biden with an advantage for 66% of viewers) and the public health crisis resulting from Covid-19 (64% of viewers give Biden an advantage in this topic).
The debate seen in Hoboken, New Jersey (@ Tayfun Coskun / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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In general, 63% of the viewers heard believe that Joe Biden’s plan to solve America’s problems is better than Donald Trump’s – and only 30% think the current president’s plan will be more efficient.
The station recalls, however, that this market study intends to clarify the position of “registered voters who saw this Tuesday’s debate”, not having the ambition to translate “the views of all Americans”. In addition, the group of viewers heard was tending to be more democratic than the American electorate, given that 39% of those involved claimed to identify themselves with Joe Biden’s party, while only 25% (one in four) claimed to identify with the Republican Party.
Amid screams and insults, neither Trump nor Biden could think
Who also carried out a poll after the media clash between Trump and Biden this Tuesday night (Wednesday morning in Portugal) was CBS News, in partnership with the company YouGov.
The results of this survey were much less favorable to Biden than the results of the CNN survey. The balance was much greater: of the listened to listeners, 48% considered the Democratic candidate to have done better, while 41% considered Trump to have won.
The debate seen at “The Abbey” in West Hollywood, California (@ Mario Tama / Getty Images)
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Still, the preservation of Biden’s advantage previously estimated in several polls is also supported by the CBS News survey.
Other data that will make the Democratic candidate smile: 42% of respondents in this poll had a worse image of Trump after the debate and only 24% had a better image, while 38% of respondents had a better image of Biden after the media conflict and were less – 32% – those who got the worst of the Democratic candidate.
While early polls give Joe Biden an advantage, rated by viewers of last night’s debate as having done a better job than President Donald Trump, it is not yet a case of singing victory. In addition to the more traditional polls, Trump seems to have done (surprisingly?) Much better with the Latin community in the USA: according to the American magazine Newsweek, a poll after the debate found that 66% of the channel’s viewers Spanish-speaking American Telemundo (who belongs to the NBC chain) considers that Trump won the debate, in the past that only 34% see Biden’s performance as having been better than that of the current president.
The Latin community is a traditionally Democratic electorate, so an advantage of Donald Trump to this electorate could complicate accounts for Barack Obama’s former vice president, Joe Biden. Both the Democratic candidate and the Republican candidate bet on joint campaign actions by the Latin community and its leaders in the United States, Newsweek recalls.
There is yet another detail in the results of the first polls that could serve as an alert to the Democratic campaign: the result of the CNN poll, according to which six out of ten viewers of the debate consider that Biden was better than Trump, is not much different from the result from polling the same station four years ago. At the time, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was considered the winner of the debate by 62% of the viewers heard in the CNN poll, but ended up losing the election to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump supporters attending the debate in the state of Pennsylvania (@ ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)
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In addition, there is a theme that could give Trump an advantage. Even in the CNN poll on the debate, which gave Joe Biden a significant advantage, the views of the auscultated viewers on the two candidates’ perspectives on economic issues were divided: half (50%) considered that Biden was better when it came to economy but 48% considered that Trump was the best at this topic.
The ability with which Trump and Biden are seen in solving economic problems is of particular concern to the Democratic candidate as the sample of participants was significantly more favorable to him, as 39% of those involved in the poll said they identified with the Democratic Party while only 25% assumed to identify with the Republican Party. And the topic may become more prevalent when voting, given the economic crisis in the USA resulting from the crisis of the new coronavirus.
Furthermore, when the CNN poll question was about who is the strongest leader to preside over the country, Biden’s advantage – 55% consider him a stronger leader – has not been sufficiently consolidated given the greater weight of Democratic voters involved in the poll, for Republican voters.
The debate does not seem to have been enough to dig a bigger gap between Biden and Trump than the one (short) that has been calculated in different election polls, but the polls suggest that the night may have at least allowed Biden to retain the advantage it held before the media confrontation.
In the CNN poll, a majority of auspicious viewers (57%) said that the debate did not influence their vote – but of the minority that was open to change, 32% said they were more inclined to vote for Biden after the debate on this issue. Tuesday and only 11% said they were more inclined to vote for Trump.
The way in which the two candidates are viewed has not changed much according to the CNN poll: before the debate, 60% of the people in the group of chosen viewers claimed to have a positive outlook on Biden and 37% said they had a positive outlook on Trump; after the debate, the variations were small (62% for Biden, 37% for Trump).
Also, the results of the CBS News poll seem to indicate that the influence in the voting direction will be small: the results – 48% considered Biden the winner, 41% considered Trump the winner – reflect reasonably faithfully the estimated support differences between the two candidates, in the calculation of pre-election polls.
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