Michigan It is one of the sevenhinge states” of USA. This term refers to the jurisdictions where polls show great parity between the democratic candidate, Kamala Harrisand the Republican Donald Trumpwhich is why they are decisive in the presidential elections of November 5. These are the recent results in Michigan, today Tuesday October 22two weeks before the electoral contest.
The seven hinge states of these 2024 elections in the US.
The dispute between Harris and Trump at the national level is anticipated to be extremely close, with few points between the two and a notable parity in the group of key stateswhich in addition to Michigan integrate Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In these territories, none of the candidates are favorites. Whoever wins the elections on November 5, even by the slightest difference, will take all of the electoral votes. It is precisely due to the United States indirect electoral system that these entities could tip the balance in the final count.
Weeks ago, Harris led Trump by a considerable difference. Since August, the gap has progressively narrowed until reaching the meager 0.3% that currently separates themaccording to the average of surveys of FiveThirtyEightthe Democratic candidate has 47.5% support, while Trump runs closely with 47.2%.
The polling average between Harris and Trump in MichiganFiveThirtyEight
This approach in recent days was driven by the publication of different surveys that They anticipate a Trump victory by a narrow margin. For example, the consultant AtlasIntel registered an endorsement of 50,2% for the republican and 47,3% for the Democrat, which represents an advantage of almost three points in favor of the former president.
At the company Trafalgar Groupfor its part, estimated a distance of almost two points between the two, with a voting intention of 46% for the 78-year-old businessman and 44,2% for the 59-year-old lawyer. In this universe of respondents, the 3.6% responded that they will choose other candidates and 6.3% said they have not yet decided who they will vote for.
Some of the latest polls in Michigan anticipate Trump as the winnerTrafalgar Group
For its part, a recent report by Redfield & Wilton Strategiessponsored by The Telegraphanticipated a possible tie among the candidates. According to this study, both the vice president and the former president would obtain a 47% eachwhich shows the parity that exists in this jurisdiction, where some few votes could make an important difference in the formation of the Electoral College.
Michigan is one of the seven “hinge states,” although in recent decades showed a favorable trend towards the Democratic Party. In the last 30 years, The only Republican who triumphed in that jurisdiction was Donald Trump himself in 2016when he won at the national level and reached the White House.
However, since Bill Clinton triumphed in 1992, all presidential elections were won by Democrats in Michigan: in 1996, Clinton; in 2000, Al Gore; in 2004, John Kerry; in 2008 and 2012, Barack Obama, and in 2020, Joe Biden. In them, almost everyone also won nationally, except for Gore and Kerry.
In the US, elections are indirect. This means that citizens do not directly elect their highest authorities, but rather the members that their state will contribute to the Electoral college and then they will be responsible for voting for the president and vice president.
Each jurisdiction has a defined number of voters by the number of senators and representatives it has in the US Congress. Thus, in 48 states and Washington DC, the winning space obtains all the electoral votes of that state, regardless of whether it was imposed by a minimal difference or by a wide margin. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, where the voter contribution is proportional.
He Electoral college is composed of 538 members. Although they are free to vote for anyone eligible for president, they always first commit to voting for a specific candidate. Once defined, These electors elect the next president, who must receive at least 270 votes of the total. If this majority is not satisfied, breaks the tie in the House of Representatives.
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