It’s just over a month until United States presidential elections and national surveys are already beginning to show a slight trend of what could happen at the polls.
According to polls updated as of today, Tuesday, October 1, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would surpass Republican Donald Trump by a minimal differencebut everything can change in the coming weeks.
Fivethirtyeight site shows overall lead for Kamala HarrisFivethirtyeight
The latest update of FiveThirtyEight, shows that in the national average, the Democratic candidate surpasses the former president by 2.8 points, with a 48.6% support against 45.8% of the businessman. In this compilation of surveys, the current vice president has remained at the top since mid-July.
Another survey that provides a similar conclusion is the one carried out by Real Clear Pollingwhich indicates a two point difference between Harris and Trump. According to the different polls consulted to prepare this analysis, the Democratic formula would prevail with 49.3% support compared to the 47.3% that the Republicans would receive.
According to polls polled by RealClearPolitics, Trump would fall by two points if the elections were held todayRealClearPolitics
Meanwhile, The Hill portal does offer a greater distance between both candidateswhich would exceed four points. According to their monitoring, the voting intention favors the progressive leader with 50.3% of the vote, against 45.8% of the conservative leader.
All the mentioned portals are based on a series of surveys from different consultancies and media in order to determine the average voting intentions that each candidate would receive if the elections were held right now. One of the most consulted surveys is the one carried out by Morning Consultant that, in its last update, marks a clear advantage for Harris. According to the consulting firm’s survey, the Democrat would remove him five points (51% against 46%) to his opponent.
The survey carried out by The Hill shows a good difference in favor of HarrisThe Hill
For its part, Outward Intelligence presented a report with a support even bigger for Harris. This study showed a difference of 5.8 points over former president Trump, with 50.8% compared to 45% among likely voters.
On the other hand, other polls give results in favor of Donald Trump. This is the case of Rasmussen Reportswhich notes: “the latest national telephone and online poll finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of likely voters in the US would lean toward Trump, while 46% would favor Harris.” ”. “3% of respondents say they would vote for another candidate and 2% are undecided,” the report says.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Erie, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)Matt Rourke – AP
The United States presidential election is scheduled for November 5 of this year. In these elections, the citizens of each state They vote for the formula and the party of preference. However, it should be noted that, while other public positions (such as senators and representatives) can be won based on the popular vote, in the case of the election for president and vice president, the Electoral College is what determines who is the winner of the contest.
For this reason, voters must elect the Electoral College, a body that is made up of a total of 538 electors from all states, which includes Washington DC. To win the election, it is required to have a majority of more than 270 electoral votes. After a vote count is done in Congress on January 6, 2025, finally, The candidate who wins will take office as US president on January 20 of that year..
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