In just over three weeks it will be presidential elections 2024 in the United Statesbetween the vice president and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and his Republican rival, the former president Donald Trump. In this context, the nationwide surveys mark a slight tendency for a presidential candidate and anticipate what could happen in the ballot boxes.
The average of national polls ahead of the elections between Harris and Trump
According to polls updated to date Thursday October 10, Harris narrowly surpasses Trump: between two and two and a half points on average. In any case, the elections In the United States they are defined by a Electoral college. Therefore, The fundamental thing is how many voters each candidate secures by winning in the different states. To prevail, you need to get at least 270 voters of the 538 total.
Most of the latest polls show a slight lead for Harris. That is the case of the study of co/efficientwhich registered a voting intention of 49% for the 59-year-old lawyer and 47% for the 78-year-old businessman.
Most polls show a slight advantage in favor of Harrisco/efficient
The report showed majority support for the Democrat in social groups such as women, people of African descent and those with higher education; while support for the Republican is mainly among men and people between 35 and 44 years old.
Some polls show a greater difference for the vice president, such as the one carried out Ipsos and was sponsored by Reuters. According to the results, it is estimated a 46% for Harris and 43% for Trump (three points difference). On the other hand, others predict a narrow victory for the former president, such as the ActiVotewhich projects support from 50.6% for the Republican and 49.4% for the Democrat.
Some polls show a slightly favorable scenario for TrumpActiVote
The document states that Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, men, whites, those over 50, those with the highest incomes and those with a college degree. For her part, Harris draws a difference between urban voters, the youngest voters (between 18 and 49 years old), independents, blacks, Latinos, and low-income voters.
Nate Cohn, chief political analyst The New York Timesnoted that new Times/Siena polls, conducted after the debate in key states of Michigan and Wisconsinas well as in Ohio and Nebraska’s second congressional district, show that the next elections will be very close.
Specifically, he explained that in a hypothetical case that his results were correct, Harris would have 270 in the Electoral College and Trump 268. “In terms of the electoral count, it would be the closest modern American presidential election“, considered.
This is how the US Electoral College works.
In the general election, the citizens of each state vote, once registeredby the formula and the party of preference. While other public offices, such as senators and representatives, can be won based on the popular vote, in the case of the president and vice president it is different: the Electoral College is what determines who is the winner of the contest.
The thing is that the voters lean toward the electors, who are the ones who ultimately vote for the head of state and his running mate. In total, the Electoral College is made up of a total of 538 voters from all statesincluding Washington DC (District of Columbia).
It does not matter the difference by which a candidate prevails in a jurisdiction. No matter how minor the difference, it retains all the voters of that state. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, which grant them proportionally. For To win the election, it is required to have a majority of more than 270 electoral votes.
The counting of votes in Congress takes place on January 6, 2025. Finally, The winning candidate will be sworn in as US president on January 20..
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