Las 2024 presidential election in USA They will be on Tuesday, November 5, between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and his Republican opponent, former President Donald Trump. Although at the national level the results of surveys show an even scenario between both candidates, the polls in the state of Texas reveal a marked advantage in favor of the entrepreneur.
The Big Star State, which is home to big cities like Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, es traditionally republican. In the last almost 50 years, he opted for conservative candidates in each of the elections, even those years where the national trend was notoriously contrary.
With his 40 electoral votesit is the second state that contributes the most members to the Electoral collegeonly behind California. Therefore, taking into account that the American electoral system is indirectthe Harris and Trump teams are closely watching what is happening in the jurisdiction governed by Greg Abbott. The thing is that the candidate who manages to prevail there, even if it is by the slightest difference, He will stay with all of his voters.
In Texasbetween Trump and Harris there are around 6.6 percentage points of difference in favor of the Republican, according to the average of polls calculated by FiveThirtyEightwhich reported an average of support from 50,9% for the conservative candidate and the 44,3% for the liberal.
The average of the polls in TexasFiveThirtyEight
The truth is that practically all the latest polls in the southern state anticipate a victory for Trump. Some predict a difference of between four and five points, such as Morning Consultwhich grants a voting intention of the 50% for the former president and a 46% for the vice president. Something similar happens with YouGovwhich projects a 51% for him and 46% for her.
However, others even expect an even larger advantage. This is the case of the consultant ActiVotewhich registered a voting intention of 56% for the 78-year-old businessman and 44% for the 59-year-old lawyer, which represents a 12 point gap between them.
Some polls anticipate a large lead for Trump in TexasYouGov
This latest study found that Harris prevails among urban voters, young voters (18-29), Democrats, black and Latino voters, low-income voters, and voters with at most a high school and college education. For his part, Trump wins in all other categories, which include rural and suburban voters, over 30 years old, Republicans, whites and people of middle or high income.
In the US, elections are indirect. This means that citizens do not directly elect their highest authorities, but rather the members that their state will contribute to the Electoral college and then they will be responsible for voting for the president and vice president.
This is how the US Electoral College works. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File)Steven Senne – AP
Each jurisdiction has a number of electors defined by the number of senators and representatives it has in the US Congress. Thus, in 48 states and Washington DC, the winning space obtains all the electoral votes of that state, regardless of whether it was imposed by a minimal difference or by a wide margin. The exceptions are Nebraska and Maine, where the voter contribution is proportional.
He Electoral college is composed of 538 members. Although they are free to vote for anyone eligible for president, they always first commit to voting for a specific candidate. Once defined, These electors elect the next president, who must receive at least 270 votes of the total. If this majority is not satisfied, breaks the tie in the House of Representatives.
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