Texas is not considered among the key or swing statesbut it is one of the entities that has the largest electoral votes (34), so the results are important to define the winner in the next United States elections, which will take place on November 5th and in which they will face each otherDemocrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Las latest pollsuntil this Monday, September 23, show a preference for the former president.
According to the average of national and local surveys on the site FiveThirtyEightas of this Monday, September 23, shows that The former president maintains a preference of 50.3% among voterscompared to 44.1% for the current vice president, which means a difference of 6.2 percentage points.
On the other hand, the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation (TxHPF) released the results of its new survey, which was conducted among 1,200 likely voters in the Lone Star State between September 13 and September 18, 2024. According to its data, Trump leads Harris with 50%compared to 44% of women, a difference of six percentage points. An advantage that has been halved since the organization’s last survey, which was carried out in April.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump looks on during a campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. on November 2, 2023 in Houston, TexasBrandon Bell – GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA
TxHPF Executive Director Jason Villalba commented, “While former President Trump’s lead in Texas has diminished considerably among likely voters since Biden dropped out of the race, his strength among likely voters has Hispanic voters in Texas continues to show surprising resilience.” The former president is positioned six points above the vice president in this sector of the population, with 49% of the preference.
Villalba added: “Given the size of the Hispanic voting population in Texas, If Harris could strengthen her support among Hispanics In a significant way, it would have a psignificantly higher likelihood of turning Texas Democratic”.
For her part, Regina Montoya, a former member of President Bill Clinton’s staff and a member of the TxHPF board of directors, noted: “As these numbers demonstrate (…) the excitement and enthusiasm generated by the Harris-Walz campaign since Biden’s departure have clearly marked the contours of the campaign across the country, including in Republican states like Texas”.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the candidates for these 2024 elections in the US (AP Photo)
The foundation’s survey also highlights that the single issue identified by Texas voters as most important to their voting decision varies dramatically and depends on whether the voter intends to elect the Republican or the Democrat. In summary, TxHPF’s Director of Information and Analysis, Mark P. Jones, notes that “The most important issue for Trump voters is the economy (46%)”, after the Immigration and Border Security (37%) and the future of democracy (9%).
While the most important issue for the vice president’s voters is the future of democracy (41%), followed by reproductive rights (26%) and the economy (11%).
In the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Texas, the Republican leads the Democrat by more than six percentage points.FiveThirtyEight
In the United States, the president is not directly elected by the vote of the citizens. The voters define the Electoral College, a body that is made up of a total of 538 electors from all the states. The number of electors that corresponds to each entity is calculated in proportion to its population and the number of congressmen that represent it. In the case of Texas, the electoral votes are 34, making it one of the largest jurisdictions, only after California (55).
A majority of 270 votes is required to determine the winner. If no candidate receives a majority, the presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and goes to Congress. In the first case, after a vote count in Congress, the winning candidate will ultimately assume office as U.S. president on January 20, 2025.
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