It is said that the party that wins the elections in the countryside also wins them in the country. As we saw during the last vote, support for PiS prevails in the countryside and in the group of farmers, and significantly at that. But today the answer to the question whether PiS will win the next elections is no longer – as it seems – obvious. And Agrounia wants to enter the game.
More than 40% of Polish society currently lives in the countryside and it is a potentially very important electorate that all political parties are striving for. It is said that the party that wins the elections in the countryside also wins them in the country. As we saw during the last vote, support for PiS prevails in the countryside and in the group of farmers, and significantly at that.
Poles’ election declarations
However, the analysis of election declarations from the last two years shows that changes in support for PiS show a downward trend. According to prof. Jerzy Bartkowski from the Faculty of Sociology at the University of Warsaw, it is related to a pandemic. This is the main determinant of this support, both its decline and periodic increases. The readiness to vote for PiS grows in the summer – in periods of weakening of the pandemic. The second factor influencing the public’s readiness to vote for PiS is the general assessment of the situation in the country in a given electorate. When they improve, declarations of will to vote for PiS also grow.
On the other hand, support for all opposition parties is, on the one hand, negatively related to the popularity of PiS and, on the other, to their relations with each other. In the opinion of prof. Bartkowski, support for the PO is not a simple reversal of support for PiS. The main opposition party also lost support until June 2021. This reversed Tusk’s return to domestic politics in June 2021. However, this party has not yet been able to return to pre-pandemic support levels.
A novelty among the opposition parties is the Poland 2050 movement by Szymon Hołownia. The support for him grows and decreases opposite to the support for the PO, which would prove – according to prof. Bartkowski – about mutual flows of voters. But it also grows in periods of weakening PiS. This would indicate that voters were looking for an alternative outside the cartel of “old parties” in a crisis situation.
Support for the other two opposition parties, PSL and SLD, is quite low, below the election threshold. For PSL – as noted by prof. Bartkowski – this is not an unusual situation. However, it is difficult to say whether all this is temporary, or whether it rather signals the threat of the disappearance of both of these parties from the area of major political parties.
– If you analyze support for the main parties in rural areas, it is striking that the preferences of rural voters and farmers differ from those of other voters. – emphasizes prof. Bartkowski. Diversified support of the opposition parties is rather a phenomenon of the city electorate. In the countryside and in a group of farmers dominates – as already mentioned – support for PiS, and significantly. Actually, none of the opposition parties, nor the Confederation, exceeds 10% in this area.
But, according to the data from the last report on the state of the village of Polska Wieś 2022, in 2021 there was a significant reduction in support for PiS among farmers and rural residents.
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Assessment of economic policy in the eyes of the countryside
As assessed in the report by prof. Jerzy Bartkowski, the social and political mood in our country has clearly deteriorated in the last two years.
The assessment of the government’s policy towards the economy and agriculture among the inhabitants of rural areas and farmers is worse than among all Poles. The latter is assessed particularly negatively. On the list of assessed areas of activity of Mateusz Morawiecki’s government, it is in the penultimate place – before health policy.
– It can be hypothesized that the support of PiS by rural residents and farmers is determined more by factors other than the effects of its agricultural policy. The issue of social transfers is certainly not insignificant. There are more beneficiaries of this policy in these areas, both families with children and retirees and pensioners – believes prof. Bartkowski.
As he adds, in analyzes using macroeconomic indicators, support for PiS is correlated with the increase in agricultural pensions.
– However, it can be hypothesized that axiological factors are equally important. The general attitude towards the PiS rule is projected on the attitudes towards the ruling camp of the United Right, and less is determined by its economic and agricultural policy – believes prof. Bartkowski.
What about Agrounia?
The description of attitudes and behavior of the rural electorate would be incomplete without discussing the activity of Agrounia and its leader Michał Kołodziejczak. According to prof. Bartkowski, in the case of protest movements, their significance cannot be measured by active participation in protest actions alone.
– It is an expressive movement for which the very occurrence is symptomatic – says prof. UW.
As he adds, if successive protests are reported to the public, they occur in periods of strong agitation in the agricultural sector, which is indicated by fluctuations in the assessment of the situation and jumps in the popularity of the ruling party among rural residents and farmers. – The importance of this movement is evidenced, on the one hand, by invitations to electoral lists from opposition movements or radical left-wing politicians, and on the other hand, by being subjected to surveillance, and possibly the long-delayed registration of this movement as a party to this significance – believes Prof. . Bartkowski.
However, in his opinion:
It is rather difficult to predict the lasting success of the agrarian anti-European party with its protest against sanitary measures, food self-sufficiency slogans and leftist affiliations.
– There is an analogy with Andrzej Lepper, but today’s farmer is no longer the same as at the beginning of the transformation. Nevertheless, the emergence and activity of this movement should be considered an important signal that speaks of the difficult situation of rural areas and agriculture – emphasizes in the report Polska Wieś 2022 Prof. Bartkowski.
What predictions for the future?
Of course, it is difficult to summarize a situation that does not seem to be permanent.
– The pandemic has not ended, and the system of power in Poland and the divisions associated with it have not changed. In addition, it seems that the country is entering another crisis, this time economic and political. It can be said that these are around the turning point – believes prof. Bartkowski.
In his opinion, this type of trend is visible both in the attitudes of the general public, as well as the rural population and farmers, despite their greater support for the current system of government and its ruling team.
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