The Palestinian organization Hamas will replace Yahya Shinwar with a new political leader who will likely be based outside the Gaza Strip while his brother, Mohammad Shinwar, is expected to take on a more prominent role and lead the war against Israel in the Palestinian enclave. according to experts.
In discussions about its new leadership, Hamas should consider not only the preferences of its main backer, Iran, but also the interests of Qatar, where all the main candidates for its political office currently reside.
Sinwar, the “mastermind” of the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, was killed in action on Wednesday. It is the second time in less than three months that Hamas has been left without a leader. His predecessor, Ismail Haniya, was assassinated in Iran in July.
When Sinwar replaced him, he merged the military and political leadership in Gaza in his person. But it does not seem that this will continue with the next leader. After more than a year of heavy attacks by Israel, with thousands of Hamas fighters killed and top Hamas figures inside and outside Gaza wiped out, it is unclear how the group will respond to the latest blow.
Sinwar’s deputy, Khalil Al-Haya, who is seen as his likely successor, said the Israeli hostages would not be released until the Israeli army withdraws from Gaza and the war ends.
In the past, Hamas has quickly and effectively replaced its fallen leaders. Responsible for the selection of the new head is the Shura Council which represents all members of the organization in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Israeli prisons and the Palestinian diaspora. That means the new leader will be able to participate in ceasefire talks even if he is not in Gaza, where the group’s fighters are still holding dozens of Israeli hostages.
Besides Haya, who is Hamas’s main negotiator, possible contenders are also Khaled Meshaal – Haniya’s predecessor – and Mohammad Darwish, the president of the Shura Council, who is not well known to the outside world, according to analysts and a source close to Hamas. The source said the organization would have to inform Qatar – which has played a major role in the so far fruitless peace talks – as well as other capitals before making its decision.
Ashraf Abuelhoul, an expert on Palestinian affairs, expects Sinwar’s responsibilities to be split between two people – one to handle military affairs and the other to handle the political office, international contacts and policy-making.
“Iran is Hamas’s strongest ally, it supports it with money and weapons, and its wish is the key to who will succeed Sinwar,” said Abuelhoul, the editor-in-chief of Egypt’s Al Ahram newspaper. He said he expects Hamas to stick to its key demands in future ceasefire negotiations: that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza and stop the war. But he could show some flexibility on other issues, such as the details of a possible exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.
With the death of Sinwar, the leadership of Hamas has temporarily passed to Haya, located in Qatar. Due to the war and difficulties in communications it is unclear whether Haya can have daily contact with the fighters inside the enclave and thus let the armed wing, the Al Qassam Brigades, have the first say.
A Hamas source said Haya is not expected to face any problems in his role as the “de facto leader of Gaza”. He noted that Haya maintained good relations with the military wing and was close to both Sinuar and Haniya.
Akram Atallah, a Palestinian political analyst, said he expected the armed wing to respect Haya’s authority, even from abroad. He also expects Mohammad Sinwar to take on a more prominent role in both the armed wing and Hamas in general. A veteran commander of the Al Qassam Brigades, Mohammad Sinwar is rarely seen in public. He is wanted by Israel and has survived several assassination attempts.
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