Washington. In the past few days I’ve often thought about the fall of 2012. There was also a presidential election at that time. President Barack Obama fought for re-election against challenger Mitt Romney. And back then – like these days – there was a major natural disaster shortly before election day. I remember it well because I had just gotten married in Washington at the time and then traveled to New York with my family, who had come from Germany for the celebration.
Read more after the ad
Read more after the ad
Just a few days after our visit to the metropolis, Hurricane Sandy hit the east coast of the USA. In New York, many tunnels and subway platforms were flooded, and in Washington we sat in our apartment without power for a while. The worst hit was the state of New Jersey, which was hit by the brunt of the storm. And this was also where the supposedly most politically consequential scene took place.
Our USA columnist
Peter Sparding has been describing and analyzing transatlantic economic and foreign policy relations for two decades. As a political scientist and expert on German-American relations, he has lived in the United States for 15 years and is now Senior Vice President and Director of Policy at the non-partisan think tank Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress (CSPC) in Washington, DC He worked at the German Marshall Fund in DC and in Berlin. He regularly advises government agencies, the US Congress, interest groups and a wide range of media outlets from the New York Times to CNN and Euronews to German-language radio and television. Sparding has a master’s degree from the Free University of Berlin and also studied in Copenhagen.
On October 31, almost a week before the election, President Obama visited the disaster area and was warmly welcomed and accompanied by the Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie. Back then, Obama was able to give the impression that his government was well prepared for the crisis situation and that federal funds quickly provided help on site – in complete contrast to the reaction of the Bush administration, whose helplessness in the aftermath of Superstorm Katrina in 2005 is still felt by many Americans floated before our eyes.
Read more after the ad
Read more after the ad
Hurricane Sandy had consequences for Barack Obama’s election victory
As in other countries, for example in Germany in 2002, when the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (also in the middle of the election campaign) visited the flood areas in the Oderbruch in rubber boots, the hour of executive power apparently arrived in the USA in 2012. Quite a few observers then looked to Hurricane Sandy as an explanation for Obama’s election victory a few days later. That the president ultimately won with a relatively comfortable majority and a comparison of the polls before and after the natural disaster didn’t show any major movementsdidn’t stop many Republicans in particular from looking for the reason for their own defeat here. They had already identified a main culprit.
Although the storm may have had politically positive consequences for Obama, the same cannot be said for Chris Christie, the popular governor. At the time, Christie was considered a Republican hopeful who not only won majorities in the Democratic stronghold of New Jersey, but whose jovial and direct manner also made him nationally known and a media darling. Christie’s problem wasn’t New Jersey voters, as he also got high marks for his hands-on response. Rather, it was his friendly greeting and praise for the Democratic president so close to the election that made him a traitor in the eyes of many Republican officials and voters.
US-Radar
What moves the United States: The RND’s USA experts classify and provide background information. Every Tuesday.
As a result, Christie was accused of messing up the election for Mitt Romney and although his popularity ratings remained high for the time being, he was now viewed with suspicion by a large part of his own base. Even when he tried to win the Republican nomination for the upcoming presidential election in 2016, his supposed “embrace” of Obama was returned to him held. A few years later, Donald Trump also used it the reference on Christie’s alleged disloyalty in order to nip any ambitions of the former governor in the bud early in the 2023 primary campaign.
The lesson for today’s ambitious Republican politicians is pretty clear: Long-standing practices of bipartisanship in the event of a disaster, even if they can initially generate high poll numbers, pose intra-party dangers. In the Republican Party in the age of Donald Trump, this is even more true, because nothing seems more important to the former president than personal loyalty.
Read more after the ad
Read more after the ad
It was therefore little surprise that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis met in person after Hurricane Helene President Biden avoided and also allegedly dodged calls from vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris.
But there are also counter-examples that may give some hope. Although the governor of the state of Georgia did not greet the president personally during his visit, praised Brian Kemp Nevertheless, the commitment of the Biden administration and during his visit to South Carolina, President Biden was appointed by Governor Henry McMaster in reception (who, however, probably has no national political ambitions).
In view of increasingly devastating hurricane seasons, it remains to be hoped that, at least in the event of a catastrophe, the dramatic political rifts in the country can be overcome at least temporarily in the future.
Peter Sparding’s new book is called „No Better Friend? The United States and Germany since 1945″ and will be published in October by Hurst Publishing, London. For the Editorial Network Germany (RND) he writes a column every 14 days about his view of the election campaign in the USA – and what it means for Germany.
