One of the most common holiday wishes is seldom fulfilled: the one for a white Christmas. This year, too, the chances of that don’t look too good, although there is still some hope. “Somewhere in North Rhine-Westphalia, it cannot be ruled out that it can become white,” Yvonne Engemann puts it consciously in a sibylline way. The meteorologist of the German Weather Service can only give a well-founded forecast for the next five days, and the forecasts are becoming increasingly inaccurate. The long-term models show temperatures of three to six degrees for the Tuesday before Christmas Eve in the Ruhr area and in the Rhineland, and at night the values fall slightly below freezing point. In addition, it should be cloudy, and a little precipitation is also possible, according to Engemann. “At higher altitudes like the Bergisches Land and the Sauerland it could fall as snow. But that cannot be said precisely yet. “
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This is how other experts assess the situation. According to the internet platform wetterprognose-wettervorhersage.de , which deals in great detail with the European and American long-term models, it remains exciting with regard to the likelihood of a white Christmas. The decisive factor for this is a high above the Atlantic, which between December 21 and 24 advances so far north that a polar vortex split could occur. This would change the air currents and freeze-cold winter air could flow into Central Europe. Whether there is snow depends on the location of the high pressure area. According to this forecast, the temperatures are in the low single-digit range on frosty nights. It is also possible that cold, but dry winter weather simply sets in over Christmas – and the desired snowfall only sets in after the holidays.
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So we have to wait a little longer until a reliable statement can be made. In fact, it has been quite warm over the past few years. In 2012, the highest temperature to date was recorded on Christmas Eve in Freiburg: it was 18.9 degrees Celsius at the time. A year later, on Christmas Day in Piding in the foothills of the Alps, it got warmer with 19.3 degrees. At that time, however, this value was also accompanied by a strong fluctuation. Just one day later, the weather stations reported just eight degrees. Incidentally, it was the warmest in Germany in 1977 with an average of 13.4 degrees. And the coldest Christmas? It existed in 1962. The temperature range at that time was -0.5 degrees on Heligoland and -15.3 degrees in Oberstdorf.
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The last snow on Christmas days in North Rhine-Westphalia was in 2010. At that time, almost all of Germany was under a thick blanket of snow. The last time before that, snow fell in 1981 at Christmas. In general, climate change is reducing the prospect of a white Christmas in many regions of Germany. A comparison of the reference periods 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2020 shows, according to the DWD, that the chances of this – with a blanket of snow on all three days (December 24th to 26th) – on average in Germany by 13 percentage points and regionally even by up to decreased to 44 percentage points. This means a percentage decrease of 52 percent for three days with snow at Christmas. The south of Germany is particularly affected, where just a few decades ago there was snow almost every second year at Christmas.
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The DWD has currently calculated the decrease in the probability of a white Christmas for seven cities in Germany: In Berlin, the statistical chance afterwards fell by exactly ten percentage points, as did in Hamburg. But while the probability only decreased by 3.8 percentage points in Leipzig, it was 19.5 percentage points in Munich, 12.2 percentage points in Freiburg and 11.8 percentage points in Frankfurt / Main. That means: Statistically speaking, most people in Germany can only look forward to snow on the three public holidays every ten years.
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For the time being, the cold and wet weather of the past few days will remain. DWD expert Engemann predicts a lot of clouds for this week, plus local fog and spreading drizzle. There is no snow in sight and at least no night frost until the middle of the week. The temperatures are between five and nine degrees, depending on the altitude, rather in the milder range. This in turn fits in with the long-term trend: In recent years, many European countries have recorded the mildest winters in measurement history. In Germany, for example, six of the ten warmest winters in the 21st century were recorded.
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The meteorologist Jörg Kachelmann has listed the Christmas festivities since 1950 in a table on his website and has chosen Cologne as the representative city for North Rhine-Westphalia. The result is quite sobering: Only four times in 70 years you could look forward to a blanket of snow here for Christmas: 1963, 1976, 1981 and 2010. At the same time, the temperatures have often risen above ten degrees and are therefore unusually mild. (with dpa )
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