“It was under Peter the Great that Russia became a strong and great world power. We respect his courage and perseverance to achieve his goals.” Putin said it on Sunday, shortly after already putting the invasion of Ukraine in the context of Peter’s historic efforts to “take back and fortify” areas.
It’s telling, not only because of its imperial implications but also because it says something about his state of mind. After all the adversity on the battlefield, he has something to sell for profit again: territory expansion. That this, after the failed ‘war of liberation’ story, is the new stakes is now being openly preached – with the same conviction with which the Roman pope continues to say that it is all NATO’s fault.
Indeed, conquered territories are being Russified as soon as possible – with Russian passports, Russian TV and Internet, Russian education, and the disappearance of opponents. Conquest and denazification are seamlessly linked, with genocidal expressions and behaviors at all levels. That is not only threatening for Ukrainians, but also for the West. That is why, in the end, the heavy weapons were promised that are now reaching the front – late and, according to Kyiv, in a wholly inadequate measure.
Way to the exit
But Western support has always been limited, politically and militarily, partly because of fears of escalation. Putins promotes that fear by brandishing nuclear weapons. Now the limits of Western sanctions are in sight: Russia and the Russians are being hit hard, but Russia’s energy revenues have soared. The price of coffee in Russia has more than doubled, but the war may continue.
And now people are starting to feel the higher energy prices and inflation here and in the US. Matters on which politicians are judged here, certainly if they are unable or unwilling to explain why sacrifices are necessary. And so in Western European countries like France, Germany and Italy there are voices calling for a way out. And those countries face political hesitations and military restrictions on the supply of heavy weapons, even if they do. And so the list on Putin’s ‘the West is weak’ list sometimes seems almost as long as his desk.
Now two crucial moments are approaching: decisions on Ukraine’s candidate for EU membership and on Kyiv’s request for many more heavy weapons.
As for the first – until February 24, EU countries have been making it clear to Kyiv for years that they were not really welcome at the club. The war changes a lot, but many Western European capitals still hope that the Union will get through it unscathed. In the east, the perspective is different. The EU itself is a product of a global conflagration, they say. If the EU now dangles Ukraine, it will remain intact but lose its soul as a historic project to transcend war.
‘Unrealistic’ equipment demand
Anything less than candidate membership for Ukraine will be celebrated as victory by Putin, Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova said at the Clingendael Institute on Tuesday. She repeated the urgent demand for many more heavy weapons. According to Kyiv, they will be needed to prevent the war from reaching a stalemate, with the country being razed to the ground piece by piece, and hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers lose their lives every day. ‘We can win,’ she said, ‘but only if we are supported. We see this as a joint responsibility. For you it’s a question of money, we pay with our lives.’
In Western media, the recent Ukrainian equipment demand – which will be discussed on Wednesday and the margins of a NATO meeting in Brussels – has been described as ‘unrealistic’. That’s right if you look at the Western European armies, which have little left on the shelf. How the US reacts will become clear on Wednesday. The Balts and Poles see the Ukrainian demand not as unrealistic, but as a vital question of survival.
So far, Western politicians and diplomats have vowed to keep their backs straight. Putin also gives them little choice, because of his statements and actions. This realization is also permeating Western Europe. However difficult it may be, Germany is experiencing a ‘Zeitenwende’. And President Macron said this week that the French arms industry, one of the largest in Europe, is too weak and that we are already in a ‘war economy’.
The authoritative expert Michael Kofman wrote in the British newspaper The Economist that the war is a reminder that, in addition to willpower, “prolonged conventional warfare is dependent on the presence of personnel, weapons, ammunition, and (defense) industrial capacity.” This applies to both sides, including Russia.
So Putin may compare himself to Peter the Great, perhaps conquering a small town in Luhansk with great difficulty and after weeks of fighting, but so far his assessment of the power of democracies – both Ukraine and the countries that support Kyiv – far off. The question is: will it stay that way?
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