A Barely re-elected for an unprecedented third term as President of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), surrounded by ministers who owe him everything, Xi Jinping displays his omnipotence. Everyone seems to expect him to play a central role in the management of the Ukrainian crisis, without worrying about the ambiguities of the Chinese game and his real ability to resolve the crisis. For several months now, Vladimir Putin had been waiting for a visit from the Chinese president, which would give credibility to the discourse on the quasi-alliance between Beijing and Moscow, and would strengthen the position of the Kremlin. Xi Jinping finally goes there, as an emperor who deigns to visit a weakened vassal who needs to be comforted. China undoubtedly shares with Russia the same rejection of the world organized around common democratic values and dominated by the United States, which remains the only obstacle to the ambitions of the Chinese regime; it is this posture which will no doubt be reaffirmed in Moscow.
But the PRC has never been prepared to take risks – including costly secondary sanctions – for Moscow. Yes, Russia’s exports to China grew by 46% in 2022, largely thanks to low-cost purchased energy, which also benefits India and Japan. Yes, there are joint military exercises, including off the coast of Zhejiang, which directly faces Taiwan, or around the Japanese archipelago, which worries about it. All this is important to demonstrate to the world the reality and solidity of the partnership ” without limits “ Sino-Russian.
But, behind the facade, China remains cautious. At each UN resolution on the invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has abstained. China may have considered selling weapons to Russia, as US intelligence claims, but Beijing may not be ready to scuttle its struggling economy to help Moscow. Except to consider that, in the face of the American trade and technological sanctions already in place against it, it no longer has much to lose.
At the same time, a telephone conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky, after the visit to Moscow, would be a real masterstroke for Beijing, if this were to be confirmed. The Ukrainian president would offer China the opportunity to occupy a central place, which can only serve his interests, by allowing him first to thwart accusations of total complicity with Moscow, then to impose himself a little more on the international scene. Mr. Zelensky may think that China really holds the keys to resolving the conflict. But which ones?
You have 53.56% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.
