With a package of “lockdown-like” measures it is possible halve the reproduction index R in 4 weeks, which measures the transmission capacity of the virus. To say it is a study by the University of Edinburgh, Published on Lancet Infectious Diseases, which takes data from 131 countries.
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Public events
The authors compared the various restrictive measures adopted by governments and assessed their impact on the epidemic. At the top of the list of effective measures is there the ban on public events (-24% on R), while the increase in infections was mainly linked to the recovery of meetings with more than 10 people and at the reopening of schools (+ 25% and + 24% on R, after 28 days). The study also shows that the measures introduced as a package are much more effective than the sum of those implemented individually, even if the first effects of the “simil lockdown”(As well as those of the lifting of the measures) can be seen no earlier than 1-3 weeks. The Scottish researchers examined four possible combinations: from the “basic” package (ban on public events and meetings with up to 10 people) which cuts the R index by 29% in 28 days, up to almost complete lockdown. A limitation of the study, as admitted by the authors themselves, is that it does not take into account other potentially influencing factors, such as failure to comply with established measures or the use of masks. The problem concerns in particular the schools: in the evaluation of the data, the precautions implemented by the countries for the reopening of schools (reduction of classes, distancing, regular sanitation of environments, hand washing, temperature control) were not included.
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Schools and offices
In addition to the ban on public events, among the most effective measures on R after 28 days are the school closures (15%) and those of offices (13%), the limitations to displacements (7%) and the warning to stay at home as much as possible (3%). However, when these initiatives were introduced individually, only the stop to public events showed a statistically significant effect. As mentioned, the advantages become interesting adding up the restrictions: if the closure of offices is added to the ban on demonstrations and meetings with more than 10 people, the reduction of R is 38% on the 28th day. With the limitations of movements in the area (city, regional, national), it rises to 42%, and by adding the request to stay at home as much as possible, it rises to 52%. The effect of the measures was not immediate, the authors clarify: it takes an average of 8 days to see 60% of the benefits. As for the relaxation of restrictions, according to the Scottish study, it takes an average of 17 days to see the effect on the increase in viral circulation.
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Local context
The R number, or reproduction number, is ua key measure of the pandemic trend. A value greater than 1 indicates a growing outbreak, less than 1 indicates a shrinking outbreak. “We found that the combination of different measures shows the greatest effect on reducing coronavirus transmission – concludes Harish Nair, professor at the University of Edinburgh and one of the authors of the work -. Our study can help you decide on what restrictions to introduce and when to expect to see their effects, remembering however that the result also depends on the local context ».
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23 October 2020 (change October 23, 2020 | 16:40)
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