Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border in recent weeks. However, it is not yet clear whether Russia will actually attack Ukraine to trigger war.
It is not clear where the attack will take place. But one thing is certain, Russia has created pressure points on three sides of Ukraine, namely in Crimea (southern Ukraine), in Eastern Ukraine (Russian side of the border between the two countries), and in Belarus (northern Ukraine).
Eastern Ukraine
The presence of pressure by Russia in Eastern Ukraine is evidenced by the senior director at satellite imagery firm Maxar Stephen Wood. He said a large number of Russian vehicles (tanks, self-propelled artillery and other support vehicles) had departed from northeastern Ukraine.
Meanwhile, there has also been increased military activity in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblast regions, where both regions border the north-eastern part of Ukraine.
“We saw a huge influx of vehicles and personnel in Kursk,” said Military Movement Tracker Konrad Muzyka, quoted by CNN International, Sunday (13/2/2022).
Belarus
A troop buildup is also taking place in Belarus, a country closely allied with Russia, which could provide another route to Ukraine. The Russian and Belarusian militaries have also started 10 days of joint military exercises since a few days ago. It is estimated that there will be a total of 30,000 combat troops complete with high-capacity jets and missiles for this cooperation.
The Russian Defense Ministry claims the aim of the exercise, called Allied Resolve-2022, is to repulse external aggression. Some fear the increase could lead to Russian plans to move into Kyiv from the north.
Even so, if Russia wants to use Belarusian territory to enter northern Ukraine, it will first have to struggle through the Pripet Marshes, one of the largest wetlands in Europe. The land straddles the border between Belarus and Ukraine, a dense, waterlogged and heavily forested terrain that stretches out.
The area deterred Nazi forces during Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the Soviet Union, in 1941.
Crimea
The Maxar satellites have also observed that more than 550 troop tents and hundreds of Russian vehicles have arrived north of the Crimean capital, Simferopol.
CSIS analysts say Russian forces could attempt a coup in Odessa, a Ukrainian port city in northwestern Crimea, by sailing their amphibious ships directly into the port of Odessa and moving directly into the city.
In view of this, the Ukrainian Navy is of the opinion that Russia is continuing to militarize the Black Sea Region, transferring additional landing craft to pressure Ukraine and the world.
The Ukrainian Naval Forces said they were ready to develop any scenarios and provocations, to defend the country from attacks by sea.
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