The question of when the pandemic will end has been under discussion for almost a year now. Until recently, the answers were firmly abstract and inaccurate, but in Germany this is changing. Leading virologists have begun to say that a “good summer” awaits us. However, the number of infected is declining and the number of vaccinated is steadily increasing. Is the end of restrictions finally set?
The coveted 70%
In the United States, experts are also optimistic. Leading virologist Anthony Fauci, who also advises the White House, told the Washington Post: “The COVID-19 pandemic will be over. If we can vaccinate about 70% of people in the United States by the fall, we will get out of the epidemic stage and enter at a stage where we can control it. ” But the question is not so easy. The end of a pandemic depends on many factors, some of which are difficult to influence. Scientists initially said that 60 to 70% of people must be protected for the so-called herd immunity. In the meantime, however, the coronavirus was found to be more contagious than previously thought. Therefore, the prevailing scientific opinion is that it takes nearly 80% of people to be vaccinated to end the pandemic.
Mutations complicate the process
In addition, a number of coronavirus mutations have emerged in the meantime – in the UK, South Africa, Brazil, India and South Africa, which create additional uncertainty. Scientists estimate that these mutations spread at least 30% faster than the original. Therefore, it may be necessary for nearly 90% of people to be vaccinated in order to have herd immunity. In addition, in some of the mutations, the vaccines may not be effective enough – such doubts exist with regard to the South African variant. Vector vaccines such as AstraZeneca show an efficacy of only 10 to 57% against this variant. Some RNA vaccines, such as BioNTech-Pfizer, show more promising results. There are also insufficiently clarified questions – for example, to what extent vaccines protect against further transmission of infections. The results of studies conducted by vaccine manufacturers show that, depending on the type of vaccine, infections from vaccinated people are transmitted from 67 to 94% less often.
Skeptics are already slowing the pace of vaccination
Another factor that affects the duration of a pandemic is the percentage of vaccinated in different countries, which still varies considerably. In some cases, even if enough vaccines are available, there are people who refuse to be immunized. These include those for which the WHO does not currently recommend immunization – for example, pregnant women, children or people who are prone to allergic reactions. In the United States, the immunization campaign is gradually slowing. From mid-April, the amount of vaccines used decreases. That’s why some states are trying to motivate people with extra incentives and gifts. The number of people vaccinated in Israel has also been growing too slowly since March. In Germany, too, they report that stagnation may occur.
According to a study by the Robert Koch Institute, readiness for vaccination also depends on what type of preparation is available. Skepticism about the AstraZeneca vector vaccine, for example, is significantly higher than about BioNTech-Pfizer. Recently, there was talk that the vaccination will probably have to be updated with the so-called. booster doses after about 6 months, as the effect of the currently allowed preparations is assumed to be temporary.
The virus will become epidemic
Despite all the problems, experts are currently relatively optimistic and suggest that the virus will become endemic – in other words, it will become like seasonal flu viruses and will not threaten health on such a scale. Until that happens, however, we will obviously have to arm ourselves with more patience. Leading German virologist Christian Drosten suggests that this will not happen until about a year and a half.
Author: Schefani Hjopner
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