US President Joe Biden on Wednesday unveiled a new aid package for Ukraine including heavy weapons and more intelligence. Since the start of the war, the United States has made innovative use of declassification and sharing of sensitive information with the public and Ukraine. An approach that has an obvious impact on the course of the conflict.
For the first time, the United States decided, on Wednesday April 13, to send heavy weapons – including Howitzer howitzers – to Ukraine to defend against Russia. A new step in Washington’s commitment alongside kyiv which has not failed to be highlighted by the media.
But that’s not all. The new American aid plan for Ukraine – worth 800 million dollars – has another component, which has gone much more unnoticed, devoted to intelligence.
US President Joe Biden has pledged to send more data collected by his intelligence services to Ukraine, as the Russian army seems ever closer to unleashing the great battle for Donbass.
Joe Biden even put the supply of weapons and intelligence on an equal footing. The sharing of this sensitive information “plays an obvious role in the evolution of the Ukrainian-Russian balance of power on the ground”, admits Jeff Hawn, specialist in Russian security issues and Russian-American relations at the London School of Economics. , contacted by France 24. The United States is by far “the most advanced country for the collection of satellite data and the interception of signals, and having access to this information can be invaluable”, he notes. .
But their real impact remains difficult to assess: the effects of timely intelligence are less visible than those of an anti-aircraft missile or anti-tank rockets. Moreover, they are, by definition, condemned to circulate behind the scenes, far from the gaze of the general public and the enemy.
Repeated declassifications
Since the start of the war, much of the debate around the role of intelligence has revolved around the “unprecedented” approach to declassifying sensitive information. From the first months of the Ukrainian crisis, the Biden administration showered the media with data – war risk assessment, satellite images of the mobilization of Russian troops – coming directly from the back kitchens of the various American foreign intelligence offices. (CIA, NSA, Defense Intelligence Agency).
Documents, usually reserved for the sole eyes of the Allied governments, thus fed the public debate. This strategy “did not prevent the war, but it made it possible for the greatest number to accept that Russia was the aggressor. This then facilitated international coordination to impose the sanctions”, underlines Ofer Riemer, doctoral student at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and specialist in intelligence matters, contacted by France 24. Hawn.
Another indirect effect of this very public display of “secret” Russian plans before the start of the invasion war could have been to “create mistrust between the Kremlin and the Russian secret service”, believes Ofer Riemer. This proliferation of revelations may have given the impression of a Russian general staff infiltrated by Western intelligence services. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the highly reputable Russian intelligence services seem to have played no decisive role during this conflict: Vladimir Putin no longer wanted to listen to his spies.
Information that can kill
These repeated declassifications of information have almost made people forget that once war was declared, spies continued to spy. But this time, it’s hard to know how much Ukraine has benefited from it.
“There are two types of intelligence that the United States can transmit to kyiv: strategic information, rather of a general nature, on Russian war plans and objectives, and tactical data for real-time monitoring of troop movements. “, summarizes Jeff Hawn.
The United States has never made a secret of having continued to transmit the first type of information to kyiv since the beginning of March. But Washington maintains an artistic vagueness around the supply of tactical data. Asked directly about it in early March, Democrat Adam Smith, head of the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, denied that such intelligence was being passed on, while hours later Jen Psaki, the spokesman for the White House, assured that Adam Smith had “not understood everything”. But she didn’t want to go into details.
A reluctance that can be understood. This kind of intelligence can kill: geolocation data to track Russian troops on the ground would allow the Ukrainians to mount targeted elimination operations. The United States would then risk appearing to be more than a party to the war in Ukraine, thus paving the way for a dangerous escalation of the conflict.
Hence the importance of the announcement of an intensification of the sharing of sensitive information with kyiv. “A new doctrine has been developed in Washington allowing the American intelligence services to share data which will allow kyiv to have a very precise image of the Russian military system set up in the Donbass and the Crimea”, affirms the Wall StreetJournal.
Demoralizing effect
The American administration therefore seems to have decided to “provide raw data which allows the Ukrainian army to have a real-time image of Russian troop movements”, estimates Jeff Hawn. The American general staff also seems to have confirmed this to the Wall Street Journal by affirming that the red line of the new doctrine was “not to provide intelligence on Russian positions in Russia so as not to allow the Ukraine to carry out offensive operations,” writes the daily. In other words: everything else would be permitted.
A major change in doctrine which is explained by the evolution of the context on the ground. The offensive in preparation in the Donbass requires more than strategic information, believes Jeff Hawn. It is a narrower front where there will be encirclement attempts by Russian forces, which makes it all the more important for “the Ukrainians to know precisely where the enemy is coming from in order to defend themselves correctly”, underlines this specialist.
And even if the United States did not, in fact, deliver this famous tactical information, the simple fact of suggesting it “can have a demoralizing effect”, estimates Ofer Riemer. Russian soldiers, who have already suffered a setback in their attempt to take kyiv, risk becoming more defensive if they think Ukraine knows their precise location from the Americans.
But this opening of the American intelligence tap is not just a hostile act by the United States towards Russia. It is also, paradoxically, “a way of indicating that they will not get involved more forward and directly in the conflict”, assures Ofer Riemer. A nation ready to engage militarily on a front keeps its information to itself so that it can use it when necessary. In other words, Moscow will have something to really worry about the day the American spies are silent.
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