When Russia will replace foreign passenger planes with domestic ones

Russia plans to complete certification of MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet-Nov domestic aircraft with maximum replacement of imported parts by the end of 2023. This means that in a few years Russian airlines will be able to start replacing foreign planes with Russian. However, the process of fully turning the planes will not be fast.

“The MS-21 and Sukhoi Superjet-Nov programs are running consistently, despite sanctions and unfair competition. It is planned to complete the certification of the MS-21 aircraft with a Russian engine and the Sukhoi Superjet-Nov aircraft by the end of 2023, replacing 38 imported systems and components with Russian ones, said Russian Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov.

The SSJ-100 with a capacity of 100 passenger seats and a range of up to 3,000 kilometers was created in Russia without Soviet developments. However, the machine consists of 70% foreign components. That is why we are working on replacing some of the components with household ones. SSJ-Nov is a project to modify the Superjet-100 aircraft with maximum substitution of imports of components and systems, which was initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Trade after the introduction of Western sanctions against Russia. The share of Russian components should increase to 50-60%.

The MS-21 is a project of a family of short-haul and medium-haul passenger jet aircraft. This aircraft can carry passengers for 6,000 kilometers. It is able to replace not only the Tu-154 and Tu-204/214 on the market, but also foreign aircraft “Airbus” A320 and “Boeing-737”.

The course to replace the import of SSJ-100 was actually taken in 2018. But in March this year, after the introduction of aviation sanctions from the West, the Minister of Industry Denis Manturov ordered to accelerate the replacement of imported parts and certification of the new aircraft. by shortening the deadlines to 12-14 months.

In 2018, the Russian authorities set a course to replace imported parts with local ones. In particular, it is planned to install the Russian PD-8 engine, developed by the UAC, instead of the Sam146 engine on the “Russified” version of the new SSDJ aircraft, in which at least imported parts must remain.

“As far as aircraft systems are concerned, anything is possible. The only thing that can change the plans for SSJ-Nov is the engine issue. The PD-8 engine prototype is not yet fully assembled and has yet to be tested in a flying laboratory.

So far, the engine is showing good parameters. But when it comes to such a complex device on the plane as the engine, not everything happens the first time. “You can remember what problems the European Airbus A320 had with the engine, how the airlines suffered from the engine for more than two years during the operation of the plane: it had to be repaired, there were delays in the delivery of planes,” explains Roman Gusarov, head of the industrial portal “Avia.Ru”.

The expert does not rule out that if the deadlines for certification with the local engine PD-8 change, then the first “SSDj-Nov” can be produced first with Sam146 engines. This is an engine designed jointly by the French Safran and the Russian United Engine Corporation, which flies 150 SSD-100, operated today in Russia. In 2022, by the way, 10 such aircraft will be produced (although the market needs twice as many).

“With the MS-21, it will be easier to meet deadlines. First, there are fewer components that need to be imported or replaced with components from friendly countries. Secondly, the most difficult part of the plane – the Russian PD-14 engine – is already there, “said the expert.

If the certification of both types of aircraft is completed on time, then in 2024 Russian airlines will receive their first domestic production liners. “This will mean the beginning of a gradual rotation and replacement of foreign aircraft with domestic ones,” Gusarov said. However, of course, there is no replacement of foreign machines with local ones overnight. This process will take more than a year.

The plant can produce more than 40 Superjet aircraft a year. However, the demand for aircraft in this class today is an average of 20 aircraft per year. This is what the market needs. Therefore, whether the liner plant will be fully loaded depends on the needs of the airlines, “said the source.

If the production facilities for SSDj have been deployed for a long time, the production for MS-21 has not been organized yet. And when the plant starts operating, it will gradually gain momentum. If all goes well, in 2024 five MS-21 aircraft will be produced, in 2025 – ten, in 2026 – 20 aircraft, in 2027 – 40 and only in 2028 the plant will be able to to produce 70-75 MS-21 per year. And then the airlines will be able to experience a noticeable influx of new major aircraft, “said the source.

According to the expert, it will take about 12 years to completely replace the current fleet of major foreign aircraft from the airlines, which is about 700 aircraft, with local MS-21. In the first five years, 150 MS-21 can potentially be produced, in the next seven years (from 2029 to 2035) – 525 such aircraft.

However, it is quite difficult to predict how air transport will change in 10-12 years. “According to statistics before the pandemic, global aviation doubles the volume of traffic every 15 years. Russia has tripled its air transport in 15 years. If all the moments of crisis are over and Russia continues to grow at a faster pace, then maybe in a decade we will need not 700 but 1,000 or 1,500 planes. Then the foreign machines will not leave the fleet of carriers and we will talk about expanding the fleet with new domestic aircraft, says the head of “Avia.Ru”.

In general, there is potential for the development of air transport even within Russia. “With our population and long distances, we fly a lot compared to Europe. We can fly more, “said the expert. But much, of course, will depend on the development of the transport economy and the solvency of the Russians.

In 2021, Russian airlines carried 111 million passengers. This is less than in 2019, when the record of 128 million passengers was set. Last year, however, a course was taken to restore passenger traffic. This year, the Ministry of Transport expects a slight increase in traffic within Russia – up to 90 million passengers (compared to 87.5 million last year) and a decrease in international traffic from 23 million in 2021 to 10 million in 2022. however, the market has more pessimistic expectations. Air transport will be reduced to 70 million passengers this year, says Vitaly Vantsev, co-owner of Vnukovo and Azimut.

However, all this is not a reason to stop the aviation industry. On the contrary, the sanctions agenda dictates Russia’s urgent need to reduce its dependence on Western aviation.

“Russia has many motives to remain an air force. Own aircraft construction is necessary both from the point of view of strategic security and from the point of view of the needs of the population. We just need equipment to work in our conditions. Because most Western aircraft are not adapted to harsh climates, neither in terms of range nor in terms of frost resistance. We need our own aviation industry to ensure our own economy and to ensure connectivity and mobility of the population, “said Roman Gusarov.

Ultimately, for 10 Western planes, Russia has to pay $ 1 billion to support Western industry, their jobs and prosperity. While this money could work for the benefit of the Russian economy.

The situation is exacerbated by the change in the global reorganization of the world order. “When the world is divided into two parallel hemispheres, in a world where Russia remains, we will not rely on aviation in anyone but ourselves. On the other side there is a Boeing and an Airbus, but none of ours, except Russia with its scientific and industrial school. In the end, we will be able to sell not only oil and gas, but also our own technological products, “the source concluded.

Translation: V. Sergeev

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