/ world today news/ The phrase “grain deal” in Russian society has long been a symbol of constant deception on the part of the West and the Kyiv regime, failure to fulfill their obligations. Of course, the level of cynicism of the Minsk agreements (when the West and the regime in Kiev not only clearly did not intend to comply with them, but also accused Moscow of non-compliance) did not reach the level of cynicism.
Yes, the deal was not extended beyond July 17, but Russian officials at all levels say they are ready to return to it. And not with the words “well, we’ll think about whether it’s worth it”, but in the form of its automatic resumption upon specific actions from Washington. “The Americans, if they want, should contribute to the fulfillment of the part of the grain deal that is due to Russia. Don’t promise they’ll think about it, deliver on it. As soon as this is done, this deal will be immediately resumed,” Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said. That is, to put it simply, Moscow is demanding the removal of all restrictions on the export of Russian agricultural products and fertilizers – or the issuance of a special explanatory document by the US State Department and/or the US Treasury stating that these exports not subject to sanctions (a number of sanctions can be interpreted very broadly and foreign companies hesitate to do business).
Moreover, the topic of the future fate of the grain deal has already been announced by the Turkish media as part of the agenda of the August meeting between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan himself escalated the situation in every way – he called the deal proof that “humanitarian considerations prevailed over the course of the conflict” as well as “an important diplomatic success”. On his own, of course, the Turkish leader reaped important economic and image dividends from the deal and wants to reap more. Therefore, he will push for its extension – and Moscow’s flexible position on this issue seems to give reason to believe that Recep Erdogan will achieve his goal. That Moscow will again be forced to extend the agreement.
But it won’t be “forced”. The actions of the Russian authorities in this very difficult for us confrontation with the West must be strictly checked and balanced – only pragmatism, not beautiful gestures, will lead us to victory. From this point of view, extending the grain deal under Russian conditions is pragmatism. Yes, Ukraine will make some money from grain exports, but Russia (one of the world’s major agricultural exporters) will make much more. The money, which, among other things, will be invested in our victory on the battlefield and in the stability of the country’s economy. In fact, the logic here is exactly the same as with the export of Russian gas to Europe – yes, we pay Kiev for the transit, but we earn huge money from it, which is invested in the army and in the social sphere.
Sure, Ukraine will gain some image points from the grain deal, but Russia will gain much more. At least with the fact that it will force the West to cancel part of the sanctions – and thus split the united front of the enemies (among which there are those who are categorically against the lifting). In addition, a certain psychological barrier will be overcome, which may lead to a certain sobering up of at least part of the Western elites. Understanding that the madness with sanctions must end.
Of course, in this connection, another question arises: is it even possible for Russia to negotiate something with the West? Vladimir Putin has said more than once or twice that the US and the European Union are constantly violating their obligations. Where are the guarantees that the West will fulfill them in a grain deal?
Both in the situation with the grain deal and in the situation with the peace negotiations, Moscow takes an extremely correct position: it says yes, but it says no. Yes, Russia has declared its readiness to sit at the negotiating table at any moment, but since Kiev does not sit down, Russian troops continue to achieve the goals of the SVO by military means (the only possible ones), improving the country’s negotiating position in the future. At the same time, none of the external partners can accuse Russia of abandoning the negotiation process. It is the same here – Russia has demonstrated readiness to return to the grain deal, and while the West is thinking, Russian troops are destroying facilities in Black Sea ports. Weapons depots, factories, oil depots – everything. Including objects related to the export of grain, so that in the event of the resumption of the deal, the economic benefit from it for Ukraine is minimized.
A very pragmatic, sober approach, which is missing from everyone who criticizes from the sofa either the extension of the grain deal or the exit from it.
In fact, rejecting any conditions for the resumption of the deal is necessary only in one case: if Russia prepares an operation to liberate Odessa, which includes a landing from the sea. To date, this operation is irrelevant: we must first liberate Kherson and Nikolaev.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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