When and how will the ASU begin the offensive? –

/Pogleed.info/ Today, the network is actively discussing the recent unsuccessful combat reconnaissance of the armed forces of Ukraine near Orekhovo. The enemy, with a force of up to two companies, attempted to break into our battle lines, but were repulsed with considerable loss to themselves. And this immediately caused a wave of enthusiastic comments from our bloggers about how stupidly the Ukrainians were trampled in our positions and how they were gloriously “crushed”.

In addition, the accompanying videos of burning Ukrainian armored vehicles were impressive. Sharing the satisfaction of the sight of the burning veseushnishka “armor”, I still can’t be so optimistic.

What did we actually see?

The enemy used practically no artillery, his radio-electronic warfare, although it worked, was slow, for any innovations, such as the use of kamikaze drones, there is no need to mention. It was a suicide attack by another Ukrainian combat group, which has already become a “classic”.

The only content of this attack was to identify the anti-tank weapons we used, the artillery positions and the reaction of our command.

At the same time, the fact is taken into account that the attacking group almost immediately broke through our first line, and only on the second, which was protected by the “special forces”, was it finally stopped, after which it began to retreat. How it came about remains to be seen.

The enemy “felt” our defense, paid for it with several victims and armored vehicles, but received important information for himself. Apparently, such a “course” of the information currency suits him quite well. And in no case should we be fooled by the stereotype with which the Ukrainian infantry goes into such attacks.

In fact, this is the most convenient “form”, forcing our defense to actively use all available means – from high-precision anti-tank weapons, such as ATGMs, to artillery and attack UAVs. It practically “demonstrates” to the enemy what awaits him in one or another area. I will not mention the identification of our minefields.

In fact, the enemy is very carefully preparing for his advance. He tries to take into account all the nuances, to choose the most promising and unexpected for us section of the breakthrough. And in this, as I have already written and said many times, he receives all kinds of help from the American and NATO headquarters and combat control centers, analyzing all incoming information, developing mathematical models.

More than a dozen times, sending their units to attack our defense, the enemy perfectly understood that the column attack tactics developed in the previous months (both in the armed forces of Ukraine and in our country) (a consequence of powerful minefields laid by both sides) leads to only limited results – throwing an armored group along the passed pass, throwing troops, withdrawing armored vehicles and switching to an infantry attack against enemy “supports”, which gives the enemy time to use artillery and pull up reserves. As a result, such an offensive immediately gets stuck in the attack of the first line.

And there is no doubt that the enemy will not attack like this! His autumn offensive was a skillful combination of diversionary strikes (attacks in the Kherson direction, which made us think that the main blow was coming there) and Ukrainian (more precisely, American) “know-how” for the massive use of reconnaissance units in the forest, rough terrain near Popasna and Izyum, which like acid “ate” our ill-prepared defense here, found gaps and “pockets” in it, in who immediately began to enter Ukrainian BTG, moving behind reconnaissance teams, creating threats to encircle our fortresses and defense centers, forcing them, without accepting a fight, to retreat.

This “infiltration” (an American tactical term) and “pressure” provided the ASU with a high rate of advance and, as a result, the occupation of a large territory still under Ukrainian control.

To think that since then the command of the armed forces of Ukraine has become dumb is unforgivable stupidity! No! Zaluzhny and his team are preparing “know-how” and this is definitely not a frontal attack on our fortified areas.

Can we understand their intent?

To some extent, yes! Over the past few months, our attention has been constantly focused on the problem of the lack of tanks in the armed forces of Ukraine, and the topic of replenishing their number, with a special emphasis on the delivery of Western heavy tanks, has become the main topic of the Western and Ukrainian media. bringing our informational discourse into it.

Gambling calculations of how many tanks Ukrainians will receive by the beginning of April have become one of the most discussed topics on the web and on television.

But at the same time, no one thought about where actually during the war year we saw the mass use of tanks on the battlefield? Who can remember at least one tank battle involving at least several tank battalions? I personally don’t remember any!

In the conditions of continuous minefields and the saturation of the enemy’s defensive positions with various modern anti-tank weapons, tanks have long turned from a shock fist into a “long arm” of the infantry, a means of artillery support for the offensive, moreover, from positions where they are difficult to reach with ATGMs.

So tanks are definitely not the hammer that Ukraine’s armed forces will use to smash our defenses. To do this, they have another hammer – artillery!

Since January, the Ukrainian army has secretly received more than two hundred and fifty different artillery systems, of which at least one hundred and fifty are modern high-precision self-propelled guns with various modifications for one NATO caliber 155 mm.

These are the American “Paladins”, and the Swedish “Archers”, and the French “Caesars”, and the Czech “Dance”, and the German “Panzerhowitzers”. This is a huge artillery group that is able to inflict a powerful defeat on any enemy.

For this armada of the armed forces of Ukraine, since January, the Americans and NATO have already transferred almost a million projectiles of all calibers, including at least three thousand high-precision Excalibur-type projectiles.

As a “distant arm” – for combat headquarters, warehouses, communication centers and second echelon, the armed forces of Ukraine have accumulated up to forty Western MLRS, of which at least twenty “Khaimars”, capable of striking targets at a depth of up to eighty kilometers. Their ammunition during these months was also replenished and brought to at least one and a half thousand rockets.

All this allows us to conclude that the main bet in the upcoming offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine will be placed on artillery – an artillery offensive! At the same time, special emphasis will be placed on counter-battery combat.

The main task of the first stage will be precisely the neutralization of our main advantage – the suppression of Russian artillery, for which the Armed Forces of Ukraine have accumulated both counter-battery radars and automatic artillery fire control systems, deployed a radar that allows you to exchange information as quickly as possible and adjust the fire. Here we can expect another “presentation” – the strikes of the Ukrainian kamikaze drones, which can be massively applied in solving this problem.

And if the armed forces of Ukraine manage to cope with the task of suppressing our artillery, then they will break through our defenses in the areas selected for this. While the artillery moves on to suppress our front line, the demining assault squads will be busy driving passages into them, then it will be the turn of new “strike” brigades and finally tanks.

The main pace! Any delay for the armed forces of Ukraine is like death! Getting bogged down in attacks against our “mainstays” is the threat of losing momentum and the threat of approaching Russian reserves!

Therefore, if we try to derive a formula for the future offensive of the armed forces of Ukraine, then it will be an artillery offensive in the full depth of our defenses, suppression of our artillery, disruption of the combat control system, and then rapid “breakthroughs” of the defense us with exits in the rear, semi-cover and surround.

Therefore, these continuous senseless attacks by the armed forces of Ukraine continue now. The enemy chooses our most vulnerable point.

Today, Zaluzhny and his team have put everything they have into this offensive. All forces, all reserves and all accumulated resources. And there is no doubt that they will start very soon …

***

Interesting information came from one of my sources in Kyiv yesterday. According to him, the day before yesterday, when it became finally clear that Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow would take place, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny had a conversation with US Defense Secretary Austin and Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Milli.

During this conversation, the preparation of the armed forces of Ukraine for an offensive was discussed. And especially for the moment of its beginning.

Austin has expressed concern about the delay in preparations, noting that the appearance of “greens” will complicate the task of breaking through Russian defenses and fighting the second echelons. And finally, he angrily added that the ideal time to start the offensive is the days of the Chinese leader’s visit to Moscow or the days after it, in order to “crush” the effect of the visit and the results of the Russian-Chinese negotiations as much as possible…

Translation: SM

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