The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange The sowing of wheat for 2024/25 was completed with an area of 6.3 million hectares. This figure represents an increase of 6.8% or 400,000 hectares compared to last year, according to statistics from the Buenos Aires entity.
However, this positive data clashes with some warning signs that have emerged as a result of the succession of severe frosts and the lack of rain that has been felt since mid-autumn.
In fact, the Stock Exchange stated that the planting work ended “prematurely” compared to the previous cycle, precisely because of the lack of surface moisture due to the absence of rainfall and the extreme cold.
A first worrying fact is that the water condition between regular and poor grew by 12 percentage points in one week, and thus, there are now more plots that are experiencing water supply problems (58%) than those that have an optimal to adequate situation (42%).
The immediate consequence is also a deterioration in crop conditions: although 84% are still in a normal to good condition, this figure is 10 percentage points lower than a week ago.
“The crop shows some damage due to cold, yellowing and in extreme cases loss of plant stands, but good rooting is also observed as a consequence of low temperatures,” the Exchange said.
In this context, the good news is that “some moderate rains are forecast for the next few days on the eastern edge of the agricultural area, which, if they occur, would have a favorable impact on the condition of the crop and would allow fertilization work to be resumed, prior to the start of critical stages.”
Complicated in the core area
At the same time, the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) published the weekly report for the core area of its Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA) which also brings yellow lights: 10% of wheat in this region of the country is between regular and bad.
“The possibility of a major campaign is fading away, unless it rains within the next 15 days. In July, the average rainfall for the region did not even reach one millimetre,” warned the GEA.
The most affected area is the north of Buenos Aires, specifically the northeast. In Pergamino, for example, the dry and cold weather was brutal for other crops as well: “It has killed barley and pea plants. In cruciferous crops, most of the plots have been lost,” said technicians in the area.
There, wheat is the crop that is resisting the most; however, there is already 10% in poor condition and 30% in regular condition. “Small, with little biomass, delayed in growth, with very delayed tillering. Every day that passes without water, potential yield is lost,” they added.
Towards the northwest of Buenos Aires, the most critical plots are those sown in July and the plots with the least suitability. In General Pinto, as a test case, they explained that “it took more than 20 days for the plots sown in July to emerge. These are the plots that are most at risk due to the lack of water.”
These groups fear major problems if there are new frosts after the next few days of spring temperatures.
Meanwhile, in the rest of the core region, the advisors agreed that wheat is holding up, but it is barely growing and developing very slowly. “A great campaign is no longer expected, unless there is rain in 15 days. We need 15 to 20 mm for growth to resume and for the potential not to be affected,” they analyzed.
In addition to reactivating crop growth and allowing them to develop roots to take advantage of the moisture available in subsurface levels of the soil, the arrival of rain is essential to be able to comply with fertilization plans and not be limited in potential yield.
The issue is that July actually ended with very low averages and another “milestone” was added to that in the 17 years that the GEA network has been operating: the intense and persistent cold wave of a couple of weeks ago plunged thermometers between -4 and -8ºC for almost 10 days in a row, something that is unprecedented.
