The Rosario Stock Exchange indicates in a report that “La Nia”, the possibility of a dry winter, margins that still give rise to doubts and areas that are still many millimeters away from reaching adequate humidity to plant wheat are the factors that lower wheat intentions, with which he estimates a 10% less planting intention.
“In this week’s surveys regarding sowing intentions and technology, wheat was no better than what was indicated 15 days ago. However, the margins have risen in the last two weeks: the indifference yield for rented land has gone from 41 to 35 qq/ha. Therefore, it is still estimated 10% less planting intention, 20% less fertilization and an estimated production of 2 Mt less than a year ago (7.8 Mt),” states the BCR report.
Why doesn’t wheat improve in the surveys days after planting?
“La Nia”, the possibility of a dry winter, margins that still give rise to doubts and areas that are still many millimeters away from reaching adequate humidity to plant the crop are the factors that lower wheat intentions, to which is added a survey by zones.
In the Aldao area, engineers comment that some producers plan to reduce wheat to a minimum, this means reductions that reach up to 80%. “But there are more cases that are between the dilemma of going down 20 to 30% or maintaining an area similar to that of 2021“, they explain. Those who are thinking of lowering the area are producers with positive results in the recent thick campaign. Those who will maintain the intention in many cases are those who were severely punished this summer and see a lifeline in wheat: with good performance it would be to win revenge in 2022. “If they have moisture in the seedbed, they will plant. Wheat is a passionate crop, while corn is good sense“, add the technicians. In Corral de Bustos they say: “we expect a significant drop. Although an improvement in the margins of wheat is perceived, mainly due to the increase in the price of the crop and a drop of 200 u$s/tn in the price of urea, the yields of indifference in rented land are still very high. Added to this is the threat of a new Nia.” The picture is similar in Bigand: “seeding intention is 15% lower“. In Carlos Pellegrini, El Trbol and Caada Rosqun comment that the area to be planted would be maintained, what would fall would be the application of technology.
The 2021/22 wheat yields in the region: will they be more similar to those of 2021 or 2020?
In the 2021/22 cycle they were record, they exceeded 47 qq/ha; instead, those of 2020/21 were the lowest of the decade: 29 qq/ha. Many producers today see wheat as the possibility of accommodating the numbers, but unfortunately current levels of fertilizer, input and rental costs put a very high financial burden at stake.
What factors explain the record yields of the 2021/2022 campaign?
High level of useful water at planting, high photo-thermal quotient in critical period and high doses of nitrogen. The planets aligned for wheat, because planting was also record. Santiago lvarez Prado, Researcher of the CONICET in the Faculty of Agrarian Sciences of the UNR speaks of this favorable combination of variables. “Wheat had a large load of useful water from sowing. When the useful water is 65 to 100% (measured between 1 and 1.8 meters deep) the probability that the crop experiences a water deficit during its cycle is low.. And that’s what happened: in spring it didn’t rain, but it didn’t affect the number or weight of grains, that is, the water deficit was very slight: there was no negative impact on the yield components.”
The other variable was the photo-thermal quotient (radiation/mean temperature). “When compared to the historical series, the photo-thermal quotient of winter 2021 was higher than the average, just around the critical period, between the end of September and the beginning of October.“. The specialist recalls a publication by Fernndez Long (2022) where it is observed how the ratio rises during a critical period in the localities of Marcos Jurez, Laboulaye and Junn. “The coefficient was above the average in all these localities: the crop fixed a greater number of grains“.
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