The race of the prices of fuels seems to have no end. Driven by a boom in international prices with a worrying aftertaste of “energy crisis 2.0”, gas e diesel in fact, they enter the third week in a row, with the companies all busy tweaking the price lists upwards.
The methane cars, which for years have practically stopped prices, are the protagonists of an unprecedented surge. In several plants there has been a substantial doubling of the cost of filling up with gas, with trade associations having already written to Draghi to ask for an intervention. Pure the LPG it is not exempt from this blaze. What is going on? And what can be expected for the future? Let’s try to shed some light.
Oil at the highest
Let’s start with petrol and diesel. The surge in prices is directly related to that of the Petroleum, which jumped yesterday to the highest levels in 7 years (at 17.00 today Brent dollars 82.8 / barrel and WTI dollars 79.1 / barrel), sealing a progress of more than 50% since the beginning of the year. The causes of the increase are many and all to be framed in the generalized increase in energy raw materials post (hopefully) pandemic. The need for energy to fuel the recovery, starting with China, has in fact given a huge boost to demand, with supply struggling to keep up.
The further boost to an already bull market came from theOpec+, the expanded organization of oil-producing countries, from which many expected an increase in crude oil output well above that agreed at yesterday’s meeting.
An oil rig
On this point, let’s rewind the tape for a moment. At the height of the pandemic, and with barrel prices literally zeroed, the oil club had agreed on a drastic cut in output to raise prices, and then gradually decided to reopen the taps following the gradual recovery in demand.
However, the mechanism got stuck – either because of the greed of some OPEC countries, or because of the difficulty of finding an agreement – and so the increase in production remained nailed to the 400,000 barrels per day previously agreed, while the world expected a more accommodating decision than his thirst for oil. What in some ways makes you think is that, when asked by Reuters, a source inside the organization revealed that fears about a possible fourth wave of the pandemic they would not be completely overcome. What can I say, let’s sincerely hope that they are wrong.
More generally, however, there is a fact to keep under control that does not suggest a retracement of prices in the short term: the oil supply deficit will amount this year to about 1.1 million barrels per day (a against a daily world demand of just under 100 million barrels) and next year the shortfall could be 1.4 million barrels / day. With these assumptions, it is difficult to expect a decisive turnaround in the short term.
What’s more, among other things, in the past few weeks, American production has also suffered significant slowdowns, thanks to the extreme weather events that hit Texas and Louisiana. Thus, in order not to miss anything and to provide further leverage to speculation on WTI and Brent – the reference oil benchmarks for the US and Europe -, which always lurks when the market overheats.
The methane case
And the methane car? Here, too, the discussion is intimately linked to the surge in raw materials, which we have all followed for the sake of willy-nilly reflections on bills. The sprint of gas, which in Europe has reached costs even double compared to oil (a phenomenon that has never occurred before), has inevitably ended up affecting those who use it as fuel for their cars, with prices even reaching the order of 2 euros per kg. Another unprecedented circumstance, which as mentioned immediately triggered a reaction from the trade associations and beyond.
Refueling a methane car
Assopetroli, which brings together the independent operators of the Italian fuel network, today sent a letter to Draghi asking for “a bridging intervention such as the partial sterilization of VAT, with an extension of the rate to 5%” for methane, LNG and biomethane for automotive use.
And politics has also moved on this point, with the PD deputy, Gianluca Benamati, to solicit an intervention by the Government to limit the impact on motorists who have chosen methane, maybe just to save money. We will see what happens, what is certain is that right now the proverbial cheapness of auto gas is being questioned like never before.
Prices at the pump
We close with some numbers, taking a look at the fuel prices in Italy published today by Energy Newspaper, elaborated on the basis of the communications of the individual managers to the Observatory of the Ministry of Economic Development.
The national average price in self mode of petrol stands at 1.691 euros / liter, with the different brands ranging between 1.681 and 1.704 euros / liter (average no logo at 1.676 euros / liter). As for diesel, again in self mode, the average is equal to 1,544 euros / liter, with companies positioned between 1,533 and 1,558 euros / liter (no logo at 1,526 euros / liter).
A petrol pump
Coming to the service, for gasoline the average is 1,828 euros / liter, with companies ranging between 1,765 and 1,900 euros / liter (no logo 1,726). The average of diesel instead reached 1,689 euros / liter, with individual players between 1,624 and 1,763 euros / liter (no logo 1,578). Possible further hikes in the coming days, in the wake of a generalized upward alignment of the recommended prices of the companies.
Finally, LPG moves between 0.727 and 0.749 euros / liter (no logo 0.731), while methane is positioned on average between 1.168 and 1.647 euros / kg, with peaks as we have said even over 2 euros (no logo 1.289).
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