Donald Trump’s victory as president-elect on Tuesday weakens diplomatic efforts to end Israel‘s multifront wars in the short term and calls into question long-term US support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its allies.
It is equivalent to a diplomatic bomb, the chilling effects of which will be felt almost immediately, and which already appears to chill such ceasefire efforts.
Trump’s policies on all issues related to Gaza, Lebanon and Iran will be diametrically different from those of his predecessor, US President Joe Biden, and will set a new course.
That information alone creates chaos in a war in which the United States had taken the diplomatic lead in ceasefire initiatives and backed Israel on the diplomatic stage. He had also led a defensive military coalition protecting Israel from Iranian missile attacks and has supported Israel with weapons and military supplies.
The Biden administration’s role this week is no longer the same as last week. The question now is what can happen in the next three months and what will happen after January 20.
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu meets with former US president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump last week in Florida. The Israeli embassy staff cringed upon hearing Netanyahu’s dig at Kamala Harris, according to the writer. (credit: AMOS BEN GERSHOM/GPO)
Theoretically, a Trump victory should be a celebratory event for right-wing Israelis and in particular for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Netanyahu was quick to congratulate Trump the X, writing: “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful reaffirmation of the great alliance between Israel and America! This is a great victory!” wrote Netanyahu, congratulating Trump who during his first term (2017-2021) was considered by many Israelis as a true friend of Israel.
Trump’s previous term in office
During that term in office, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized it as the capital of Israel. He supported the legality of settlements in the West Bank and the possibility of Israeli sovereignty over 30% of that territory.
More significantly, it created the Abraham Accords, a framework under which Israel has normalized and can normalize ties with its Arab neighbors.
However, Trump during his first term was still beholden to American voters, particularly evangelicals who support Israel; He is not the same as a second-term president who does not need to worry about re-election.
It is not clear what his record would be in this upcoming second term.
Trump’s second term
Trump was also good for Israel in peacetime because he is most capable when wielding soft power. He returns to the White House at a time of major wars, including in the Middle East, that could herald a possible Third World War.
Even before his victory in Tuesday’s election, he had promised to make peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine.
URGING his followers to go to the polls, he wrote on Twitter/X that Harris “and her warmongering cabinet will invade the Middle East, kill millions of Muslims, and start World War III. VOTE FOR TRUMP AND BRING BACK PEACE!”
He continued that theme in his victory speech early Wednesday morning, saying: “We want a strong, powerful military force, and preferably not having to use it.
You know, we didn’t have wars for years. We didn’t have wars except when we defeated ISIS. We defeated ISIS in record time. But we didn’t have wars. They said he would start a war. “I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars.”
His words raise the question of whether Trump will be good for Israel in times of war, especially given his reluctance to get involved militarily.
Some think that his entry into the geopolitics of Israel’s multifrontal war would put an end to it.
He is expected to pressure Israel to end the Israel-Hamas War and with Hezbollah, while supporting ceasefire goals that are likely to favor Israel.
This happens precisely at a time when Israel has achieved many of its military objectives and is fighting in the absence of ceasefire agreements that provide adequate security.
Netanyahu and Trump are more likely to be aligned on issues related to the Day After war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Had Vice President Kamala Harris won, she would have insisted on the link between a Day After plan and a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He would also have wanted to see the Palestinian Authority return to Gaza, something Trump would likely oppose.
A Trump White House will also reduce tension with Israel on issues critical to Biden at the United Nations Refugee Agency and on humanitarian issues in Gaza, as well as on Netanyahu’s judicial reform plans.
The BIDEN administration now lacks the resources to pressure Israel to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza by threatening it with an arms embargo.
It is also presumed that Trump would support Israeli military action against Iran, including the bombing of its nuclear facilities. Iranians themselves have proven to fear Trump, so it remains possible that his return to the White House could exert a moderating influence on Tehran.
Trump would have added legislative support for pro-Israel measures, given that Republicans control the Senate and are close to controlling the House of Representatives.
Trump, however, enters the White House on January 20, after a critical three-month transition period led by Biden.
Biden’s next three months
The Biden administration must now negotiate ceasefire deals with opponents who know they can wait out his term and would want to come to the table soon if they believe he is offering them better terms that could get worse once Trump is back in office. the charge.
Any deal Biden makes that includes U.S. guarantees now would be suspect because Trump has a history of walking away from deals he doesn’t like.
Israel could be one of those who prefer to wait for a Trump presidency to make the deal.
The frozen hostage deal in particular could be affected during those months, especially given Netanyahu’s insistence that he will not meet Hamas’s demand that such an agreement allow for a permanent ceasefire and a complete IDF withdrawal.
Political support for favoring military objectives over a hostage deal strengthened Tuesday night when Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with Foreign Minister Israel Katz.
Gallant had been one of those voices who believed Israel should end the war if it meant getting a deal to free the hostages.
However, Trump’s victory could lead Hamas to prefer a deal under Biden, believing the terms would be better given Trump’s pro-Israel stances and strong ties to Qatar.
Absent that, Biden will have few means of pressure to advance a deal, especially with both sides entrenched in their positions.
However, it could have a positive impact on Israel’s direct conflict with Iran, which has seen two rounds of direct attacks and counterattacks, with Israel bracing for an even harsher Iranian attack.
Biden now has more freedom, if he chooses to act, to take military action against Iran, especially striking its nuclear facilities. It has already subtly threatened Iran with such a move, by moving B-52 bombers to the region.
A third Iranian attack could move the United States from a defensive posture to an offensive military posture vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic.
Having failed to stop a nuclear Iran diplomatically, Biden could potentially do so militarily, changing Middle East geopolitics even before Trump arrives in Washington to chart a new course.
