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What will virus autumn be like in 2024?

More people in this country are suffering from respiratory infections. This is what current figures show: doctor visits are increasing significantly. The “activity of acute respiratory diseases (ARE)” has also “increased significantly” across Germany. So leave it the current ARE weekly report from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) announced, which particularly focuses on the third week of September.

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This week alone, 1.3 million people went to the doctor because of a respiratory infection. Rhinoviruses and Sars-CoV-2, i.e. Corona, mainly determined the infection process – in all age groups. There are around 1,500 Covid-19 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (previous week: 800). The increasing infection dynamics are typical for this time of year, but “already at a comparatively high level”. Influenza (flu) and RSV have hardly been detected so far – major waves of illness with these pathogens usually only begin in winter.

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Looking forward to the wave in a “comparatively relaxed” way

Experts expect a further increase in the coming weeks and months. “It is to be expected that coronaviruses, influenza, RSV, pneumococci and other pathogens will cause many infections,” says Timo Ulrichs, infectious disease epidemiologist at the Akkon University of Human Sciences in Berlin. “Experience has shown that upper respiratory tract infections increase in numbers in the fall and winter seasons, so this is not unusual – and always has a waveform.”

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The increasing number of infections also means individual illnesses, some of which can be more severe.

Timo Ulrichs

Epidemiologe

The basic immunity against the coronavirus in the population is good, so there will not be an increase in hospital admissions and intensive care bed occupancy as in the three years of the pandemic. “We can look forward to the wave in a comparatively relaxed manner,” says Ulrichs. But: “The increasing number of infections also means individual illnesses, some of which can be more severe.”

Vaccination booster in autumn – recommended for some

When it comes to Corona, according to the WHO, booster vaccinations remain an “extremely effective tool” in preventing hospitalizations and deaths. This also makes it less likely that you will get Long Covid. The Standing Vaccination Commission (Stiko) recommends people aged 60 and over and adults with certain underlying diseases or an immune deficiency to get a booster vaccination against Corona in the autumn.

You can get advice about vaccinations against respiratory pathogens at your general practitioner’s office.

You can get advice about vaccinations against respiratory pathogens at your general practitioner’s office.

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Certain groups of people are also advised to get a flu vaccination: people over 60, pregnant women, those with certain chronic illnesses, but also residents of retirement and nursing homes, with an increased risk due to occupational or private exposure. You can also be vaccinated against Covid-19 and influenza at the same time. A first point of contact can be your family doctor’s office.

You get respiratory diseases not just once in your life, but again and again, some every year, some every two years.

Sandra Ciesek

Virologin

But everyone is susceptible to a corona infection. Sandra Ciesek, director of the Institute for Medical Virology at the University Hospital Frankfurt, recently explained that it is not unusual for people to continue to become infected with the virus. “You don’t get respiratory diseases just once in your life, but again and again, some every year, some every two years.” The immunity that arises from a previous infection or a vaccination decreases over time and the person becomes susceptible to one again Infection.

New corona variant affects all year round

There was already a major Europe-wide wave of illness in the summer – with Corona. Although the number of cases was lower than during the winter wave of 2023, there were hospitalizations and deaths even with high temperatures, reported the (WHO) In a statement in mid-August. This could be due to vacation trips, mass events such as major sports tournaments and music festivals, but also to the lower competition from respiratory diseases circulating at the same time, such as the flu.

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“If more cases occur in the summer, this could be due to the pathogen side: new (sub-)variants of the virus can appear more aggressive,” says Ulrichs. And in fact: The new Corona sub-variant KP3.1.1 has been circulating since then and is now dominating in Germany in September. “This will probably not be the last form of the virus, but it will certainly determine the infection rate here in autumn and winter,” explains epidemiologist Ulrichs. “The variant can individually lead to more severe courses, but not comparable to the severe courses during the corona pandemic.” KP3.1.1. is considered more contagious than previous variants.

According to the WHO, it is impossible to predict exactly how the coronavirus will behave for the rest of 2024. The only thing that is clear is that several waves are still possible. “The coronaviruses spread particularly well when their hosts make it easy for them, i.e. in autumn and winter,” explains Ulrichs.

Anyone who is sick should stay at home for at least three to five days

So, in addition to vaccinations, how can you protect yourself – from Corona, but also from all other pathogens that are out and about? According to Ulrichs, wearing a mask in public spaces is always good: for self-protection, but also if you have an infection yourself and want to protect those around you. “Corona tests are rather unnecessary because there are no consequences from their results,” says the epidemiologist. “In general, anyone who has an infection of the upper respiratory tract should stay at home if possible or prevent the spread by wearing a mask.”

Flu, cold and corona are difficult to distinguish between

The first symptoms of respiratory infections can include cough, sore throat, runny nose and fever. However, the course of the disease, especially its severity, can vary greatly. Typical for real flu or influenza is a very sudden onset of illness with a high fever and weakness, whereas a cold often presents itself more slowly and often has no fever or only a slight fever. With Corona, symptoms such as nausea, abdominal pain, diarrhea, conjunctivitis, skin rash, swollen lymph nodes and drowsiness are also possible, as are disorders of the sense of smell and taste.

The RKI sees it similarly. Anyone who has symptoms of an acute respiratory infection should stay at home for “three to five days and until the symptoms have significantly improved” and, if possible, stay away from people with an increased risk of serious illness. it says on the health authority’s homepage. If rapid tests are used at home, it should be noted that a negative rapid test result does not necessarily rule out infection. However, a positive result is a good indication of how to proceed.

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And: A correctly worn mask can provide additional protection against infection indoors in phases with strong virus circulation, i.e. flu, Covid-19, RSV disease waves. “In particular, people who belong to a risk group should consider this option for self-protection,” advises the RKI.

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