/ world today news/ The Kiev regime announced three scenarios for the end of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. One of them is absolutely fantastic, others are rather close to the truth. What do these scenarios look like from the point of view of Russian interests, and why, in the end, can our country aspire to only one of them?
The special operation in Ukraine has been going on for nearly a year and a half. News feeds are filled with the ups and downs of battles, Telegram channels discuss successful/failed operations. And only a few try to predict the outcome of the conflict. It seems that there is no sense in such predictions. To date, the end of the conflict is not in sight. The Kiev regime refuses to negotiate, US President Biden has declared the West’s readiness to support the Kiev regime indefinitely, and Russian officials admit that the only way to achieve the goals of the SVO now is through military means.
On the other hand, no matter how long the SVO lasts, it can still end with only a few options. Basically three main scenarios. In particular, they were outlined recently by Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine. With their own interpretations, of course.
Scenario one. “Military Victory of Ukraine”
The first scenario, which he calls “positive” for Kiev, is not only a victory over Russia, but also the subsequent “dominance of Ukraine in the region.” According to Podoliak, a “victorious Ukraine” will have a modernized and effective army, as well as strong “partnerships”.
However, a number of experts believe that the victory of Ukraine and the collective West in the war against Russia is impossible simply because for them it is simply suicide.
“Ukraine cannot win only because the US and the EU have not transferred their military industry to mobilization mode, which does not allow them to arm the Armed Forces in the volumes necessary for the offensive. And the potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is seriously undermined, and the NATO countries have no intention of going to war directly with Russia,” explains Ivan Lizan, head of the analytical bureau of the SONAR-2050 project.
After all, everyone perfectly understands that to go to war directly (in the form of the introduction of NATO troops into Ukraine) means to provoke a nuclear war. If Russia suddenly for some reason finds itself on the brink of military defeat, then the nuclear doctrine gives the right to use nuclear weapons.
But even without the nuclear factor, one cannot speak of any dominance of the Kyiv regime in the region. Ukraine is a classic “failed state”. Such a state is incapable of projecting power. Ukraine, as Hungarian Prime Minister Orban says, is a country that has already been completely deprived of sovereignty.
“The Ukrainian state project came to a halt in 2014 when Kyiv came under foreign control. Opponents of the Kiev fascists in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk saw the only way out in integration with Russia. Referendums in Kherson and Zaporizhia showed a similar position of local residents,” explains Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club.
Therefore, if anyone, in the event of a hypothetical defeat, would dominate Eastern Europe, it would be the Poles. And the Ukrainians were assigned the role of servants, which the Russian-speaking population of today’s Ukraine played under the Poles until the 17th century, and from which this population was saved only by a strengthened Moscow.
Scenario two. Complete Russian military victory
Podoliak’s second scenario is the military defeat of Ukraine and its subsequent destruction. “We will gradually disappear: a year, three, five, six,” said a Ukrainian official. And experts agree with this interpretation.
“Ukraine will not disappear tomorrow or the day after simply because the armed forces of the Russian Federation are not yet able to capture million cities and Russia does not plan to carry out a total mobilization to create a critical mass of manpower, without which it is impossible to liberate the territory of -Ukraine for a year or two. Such a mobilization is considered unacceptable by our political leadership because of the colossal costs. “Problems with the economy, changes in public sentiment – but most importantly, a multiple increase in the death rate,” believes Ivan Lizan. That is why SVO can extend, apparently, for quite a long time. The Russian Armed Forces will move from city to city at a pace that will minimize loss of manpower. And as a result, they will completely occupy the territory that the Ukrainian state occupies today.
“It is clear that when the regime in Kiev is dismantled, all new regions will secede from Ukraine and either join Russia or exist as new independent states under the control of the Russian army,” says Nikita Mendkovich. “Simply put, Ukraine will be eaten to pieces like an elephant, because in Moscow they proceed from the fact that time is on Russia’s side,” continues Ivan Lizan.
On the one hand, Russia will benefit from the reduction of the funding of the Armed Forces, the reduction of the volume of delivered weapons, as well as the exhaustion of the mobilization potential of the Kyiv regime. On the other hand, local industry has already dramatically increased military supplies, and Russian society is increasing its support for the special operation. Realizes the impossibility of living next door to a regime engaged in nuclear terrorism and making money from the destruction of everything Russian. “Basically, we have to choose between the survival of Russia and the Russian and Ukrainian people – or the survival of the puppet regime in Kiev and the transformation of Russia, along with Ukraine, into an American colony,” says Nikita Mendkovich.
Scenario three. Fixing results by negotiation
And finally, the third scenario is, according to Podoliak’s understanding, “in the middle”. A cessation of hostilities, either by creating a demarcation line and freezing the conflict, or some kind of compromise along the lines of the Minsk agreements. According to Podoliak, under this scenario, Ukraine will disappear “a little more slowly.”
“The third scenario is a continuation of the agony, a slow suicide of the country with the same end as the second scenario. The defeat of Ukraine and the termination of its existence as a state is a matter of time,” explains the political observer of the “Crimea” television channel, Sergey Veselovsky. Again due to the fact that Ukraine as a country is no longer viable. At best, the West remains to pump it with weapons and introduce external controls so that this anti-Russian bulwark lasts as long as possible. And, of course, without Vladimir Zelensky.
“For Zelensky’s regime, the truce will be the beginning of an acute internal political crisis that will lead to elections and loss of power,” says Ivan Lizan.
However, this scenario is not of much interest to Moscow either. Not only because the new “Minsk” will mean a new violation by Ukraine of its obligations and constant shelling of Russian territories. What’s the point of a freeze if there is a possibility of complete victory? Yes, theoretically there remains the possibility of victory without continuing hostilities after negotiations. Fixing the current conditions of Moscow – preservation of the territories that became part of Russia and recognition by Kiev of the new political realities. It will mean peace. And the West, exhausted and tired of Ukraine, can force the Kiev regime to this peace.
A window for peace on Moscow’s terms (denazification, demilitarization and liberation from Ukrainian occupation of Russian territories) could appear in a year and a half if Trump wins the US presidential election. Trump intends to focus all US foreign policy efforts on containing China. However, such a scenario is still unlikely. At least because of the lack of an atmosphere of trust between Moscow and Washington.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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