Suspension of the alarm state scheduled for May 9 brings with it the hope of revitalizing some of the worst hit sectors due to the pandemic, especially during the summer period. However, experts sound the alarm because the epidemiological situation requires more prudence regarding population mobility if summer is to be prevented from being the scene of a new increase in Covid-19 infections. “The intention not to extend the state of alert could be too optimistic“, summarizes Fernando García, spokesman for the Madrid Public Health Association
There are still many aspects of the virus that we do not know and it is still very difficult to predict. To achieve group immunity, García believes, it would be necessary coordinate vaccination in all autonomies and avoid the “political battles and trips that slow down the process“, although it foresees that no more than 40% or 50% of the population can be immunized during the summer.
Although forecasting has become a complex exercise, epidemiological trends, the timing of the vaccination campaign, and comparisons with previous waves of the pandemic allow multiple healthcare professionals to profile three possible scenarios from the month of June.
Outbreaks due to increased mobility
The first possible scenario after the end of the alarm state is that the measure will generate a considerable number of sprouts due to increased mobility. “Vaccines are very good at reducing hospitalization and deaths, especially the elderly, but still we do not have enough evidence that they are good for reducing transmissibility“, emphasizes García.
“With the relaxation of the state of alarm, the measures that can be applied in the autonomous communities may not be as effective as might be expected“, explains for his part Alvaro Goñi, epidemiologist and specialist in Preventive Medicine and Public Health, to La Información. “Predictably, the epidemiological situation for June will be better than the expansion that we live now, but we have to see how the virus behaves in the different autonomies until then “.
An increase in the circulation of the coronavirus is associated with an increase in its variability the more it is transmitted and replicated. With part of the population immunized thanks to the vaccination campaign, selective pressure is generated for them to appear new variants that would threaten even those who have already been vaccinated.
According to Goñi, the Astrazeneca vaccine protects effectively against the variant that predominates in Spain, but not as effective against the South African variant of the coronavirus, from which some outbreaks have already emerged in our country. Therefore, those who have received both doses of this vaccine could stop being considered “immunized” if this variant becomes more relevant at the national level.
The increase in cases forces the hospitality industry to close
As in 2020, an error in the prevention of infections could trigger a series of outbreaks that They would force to close hotels, bars and restaurants again. Joan Caylà, researcher at the Spanish Epidemiology Society, highlights the risk of an increase in tourists in June by pressure from a sector ruined by the pandemic, as well as from those who want to travel. “If we are not strict, let’s repeat last year’s problem“, he laments,” we know that history repeats itself too often and we should not make the same mistakes. “
After the incidence of infections in the United Kingdom decreased considerably, the British Government allowed the limited reopening of hospitality premises, which had suffered several months of closure. “The ideal would be repeat the same in Spain“, indicates García, giving as an example the recommendation of the Interterritorial Council of the National Health System of Spain of close the interior of the premises in autonomies that exceed a cumulative incidence of 150 infections per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days.
In countries like New Zealand, Australia and South Korea have tried to defeat the virus with measures such as the tracking of contagions and strict confinements if outbreaks arose. Meanwhile, in Spain a mitigation strategy to prevent cases from saturating hospitals. In this way, citizens have had to living with the virus at the same time that they are imposed more or less lax restrictions on premises.
Hospital pressure will rise with younger people
One of the forecasts shared by experts is the change in the profile of hospitalized patients, what they will be younger than in the early stages of the pandemic. Depending on the progress of the vaccination campaign, a majority of those over 60 would be found fully or partially immunized, but the number of infected between 40 and 60 years, victims of the greatest extent that the virus would have, could massively occupy hospitals and ICUs.
“We worry because it is a younger profile that gets worse and, in addition, with new variants that spread much faster“, says Goñi, indicating that critical patients between 50 and 60 years ICUs could collapse. “As before a family three out of five are infected, now all five are contagious by the higher level of transmission “.
The epidemiologist insists that the mechanism of action of the coronavirus did not develop by chance, which would explain its proliferation, but not the lack of foresight in the actions of the population. “This type of virus we help you with our social and business customs and with our economic system “, he concludes. “That is why it succeeds.”
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