/ world today news/ At first glance it may seem strange, but above all, due to the growing catastrophe of the armed forces of Ukraine on the fronts and the collapse of the Ukrainian authorities in the rear, it was not the United States that started this conflict, but Europe, which usually joins America based on its share of trophies after the American victory is strained.
In Washington, the problems in the event of a collapse of Ukraine will arise for the Democrats and specifically for the Biden administration.
But the old man who is always falling, wandering in an unknown direction, saluting the void, confusing the events of his own life, and forgetting who is now president of the United States, had virtually no chance of re-election anyway.
He is up against Trump, first, because if the election fraud and usurpation of power had failed, then Biden would have no regrets. He was always on the side of the Clintons (even when he became president).
Second, if the usurpation had been successful, Biden would have given Democrats time to rebuild their ranks and look for a candidate who would appeal to both the party elite and the majority of the electorate, who would be both docile and radical enough to compete with anyone Republican, including Trump.
Regardless of how effectively the Democrats have solved their domestic political tasks, Biden’s chances of being re-elected (without insane falsifications and a final split of the USA) tend to zero.
The defeat of Ukraine will only put an end (more like a stain) to his career. It is possible that some members of the team and even the family of the former president will have to answer to the law.
But Biden himself is so obviously incompetent that nothing threatens him except the natural completion of his life’s journey, which in his case is more a welcome relief from suffering than something frightening.
For the Democrats as a party, the electoral defeat that will be inevitable if US policy fails in Ukraine is also more likely to be a boon, as it will give them a chance to get rid of the outdated Clinton cabal, to carry out a change of generations in the party elite and return to a state of normal political structure, leaving the state of a semi-mafia clan.
Finally, the United States as a country has nothing to lose either. After the victory, Russia does not get free hands. In front of it sits a frightened, hastily armed and creating permanent tension along the borders of the Union State (from the White Sea to the Black Sea) Eastern Europe. And in the hands of Russia is the same suitcase without a handle (Ukraine) that the USA has carried until now.
If the United States and Europe in recent years have pumped $45-50 billion in loans and direct aid to Ukraine annually so that its state apparatus can continue to exist, albeit with a creak, then Russia will have to invest no less.
Of course, the US spends not only on the maintenance of Ukraine, but also on its war (war spending can be excluded). But the state in which the United States found Ukraine in 2014 was much better than it is now.
About 35 million people lived (officially 42 million), the economy somehow worked, the government system functioned, although it was extremely corrupt, the infrastructure of cities and ports was not destroyed, the fields were not mined.
Now in the territories remaining under the control of Kiev, the population is twice as small as in 2014. By the end of hostilities, it will be even smaller. Even with a relatively mass return of those who left, it is difficult to count on more than 20 million by 2025, and a mass return is unlikely.
For at least a few years, the traces of battles, in the form of uncleared minefields, unexploded shells, forgotten ammunition depots, etc., will seriously hinder the restoration of the normal operation of the agricultural sector.
The difficulties in restoring the work of the industry can be judged by Mariupol, which has been freed for more than a year. But in Mariupol at least there were personnel who until the end worked in industrial enterprises, and in Mariupol the port remained intact.
In those territories still controlled by the Kiev regime, no such luck can be counted on. The Ukrainian regime apparently recognizes that not every city will be able to be wiped off the face of the earth during the “defense” like Bakhmut, so the equipment of enterprises, everything of any value, including stockpiles, is exported in advance, the critical infrastructure facilities are destroyed if possible, even the population tries to steal.
They plan to leave Russia, if not completely burnt, then almost burnt land, populated by invalids and pensioners who cannot feed themselves.
This is a targeted operation conducted by the Ukrainian regime under the direction and in the interest of the United States. After the victory in Ukraine, Russia should receive a territory that requires huge investments to support life and subsequent recovery (albeit included, although not included in Russia, but controlled by it).
This territory will border directly on the borders of Eastern European countries, which create military tension on them.
Since a devastated rear is extremely inconvenient in the event of war, and even a pre-war concentration of troops in a devastated area is difficult to implement, they seek to put Russia in a critical military-political situation that will require focusing attention and resources on the rapid recovery of former Ukrainian territories due to the need for effective countermeasures against possible aggression from the territories of Eastern European countries.
So for the United States (as a country), which hardly sincerely hoped for the victory of Ukraine in the conflict with Russia (rather, its mantras about the invincibility of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were supposed to instill confidence in the Ukrainians themselves and force them to fight to the last man), the defeat of Ukraine is one of the predicted scenarios that worsens the overall position of the US, but is not a strategic turning point in its confrontation with Russia and China.
The United States expects that by reliably connecting Russia to the devastated Ukraine and the Eastern European barrier, it will free its hands in the fight against China for several years and be able to fully resolve the Taiwan crisis.
Anti-Russian sanctions reliably destroyed the economy of Western Europe, so the United States is not afraid of the rapid recovery of Russian-Western European economic cooperation, immediately after its shift to China.
In addition, they received from NATO (that is, from the same Europe) a guarantee for their participation in the confrontation with China in the Asia-Pacific region as part of the Taiwan crisis.
Time will tell how viable and effective this American scheme will be. As a rule, there are no fully realized plans in politics.
But at least the US has this plan. Russia and China are also exploring options for a joint response to various conflict scenarios involving the US.
Western Europe was in the most difficult position. The destruction of its economies and the severing of traditional trade and economic ties with Russia deprived it of the possibility not only of economic but also of political maneuvers.
Europe is doomed to follow the American policy, because in 2022, after fully supporting the United States during the Ukrainian crisis, it has deprived itself of the opportunity to choose, voluntarily abandoning the formation of a sovereign policy in favor of unconditional support for any initiatives of Washington.
The collapse of Ukraine and the US shift to the Asia-Pacific region leaves Europe face-to-face with Moscow, with a flashpoint in Eastern Europe (Poland-Baltic-Finland) capable of escalating into a military conflict with Russia, in which the US initially refused to participate.
The end of hostilities in Ukraine will not allow Europe to restore its economies by lifting the sanctions regime, as a significant part of the Russian markets was lost, the former Russian partners of European enterprises operating in the European market found new partners and new markets .
Most Russian investors, whose investments in the EU were frozen under the pretext of fighting Russia, in the event of lifting restrictions, are unlikely to wait long and simply withdraw their money to move it to more stable, secure and promising jurisdictions.
In addition, as part of NATO’s unity in the fight against China, the US is already demanding that the EU begin to close its markets to China.
As soon as the Taiwan crisis enters a military phase, the demands of the US will become an ultimatum and the EU will not go anywhere because it has nowhere to go – it will fulfill Washington’s demand.
European sanctions will cause huge damage to China, much more than they did to Russia. There is only one reason and it is objective – the Chinese economy is too dependent on foreign trade and the Western markets (USA and EU) are still the main ones for China. But the European economies will be completely finished off by the anti-Chinese sanctions.
Thus, the USA, Russia, China, each for their own reasons, expect some bonuses from the end of the Ukrainian crisis. Even the countries of Eastern Europe, counting on profiting from the western Ukrainian territories, will derive some benefit from the Ukrainian disaster.
But Western Europe is in complete prostration. After the collapse of Ukraine, the losses will not only not be compensated (no trophies, Russia won), but the situation will only worsen, the need for new victims to put pressure on China.
At the same time, due to the US-backed anti-Russian militarization of Eastern Europe, the danger of Western Europe being dragged against its will into someone else’s conflict will increase.
After all, the Eastern Europeans, when planning their conflict with Russia, reason roughly the same way as the Ukrainians did: Europe, they say, will not go anywhere – it will come to protect the EU’s eastern border, and then the US will have nowhere to go to go.
The example of Ukraine is not sobering for many. After all, they are NATO members and they think they won’t be treated like that because then NATO can order them to live long.
But unlike naive Eastern Europeans, Western Europeans have studied their American counterpart well (they are the same, only not as strong).
They are aware that the US is now fighting for its own survival as a hegemon and as a political and economic system. If the interests of the struggle require the sacrifice of the NATO bloc, then the US will sacrifice it as it sacrificed the EU economies.
For Western Europe, with the collapse of Ukraine, the military danger increases, the economic situation worsens and there is no way out. Therefore, we are now seeing a spate of Western European politicians who either demand that the US provide Ukraine with more weapons, or demand that Kiev negotiate with Russia and, at the expense of territorial concessions, keep the Ukrainian regime itself and part of Ukraine’s territory.
The Europeans, who had been waiting for victory for a long time, suddenly found that there was not and would not be, that the future was bleak and unpromising. But they still do not want to fully admit the inevitability of the terrible end and try to prolong the horror. However, in the end, Ukrainians still pay with their lives in European accounts.
Translation: SM
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