While diplomatic efforts to normalize the situation in the Middle East continue and US President Joe Biden is in Israel for talks with Benjamin Netanyahu, the international political scene is anxious about the ground operation in Gaza and the next day in the area.
How will this “lot” end for Gaza and the Palestinians?
The answer to this question remains unclear…
Even if Hamas is significantly weakened, there will be some force to take its place inside the Palestinian territories.
But who will she be?
Israel withdrew its troops and thousands of citizens from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and appears to have no desire to return as an occupying power – unless there is no other option.
Ofir Winter, of the Israel Institute for National Security Studies, said in an interview with the BBC that a change in power could pave the way for the gradual return of the Palestinian Authority (PA) to political action, following its violent… eviction from the Hamas in 2007.
The Palestinian Authority, which is not a military organization, currently controls only certain areas of the West Bank.
The return of the Palestinian Authority and its leader Mahmoud Abbas will be a… wishful thinking for Egypt, which longs for a more realistic neighbor.
Other analysts argue, however, that such an “operation” will be very difficult, as the Palestinian Authority is weak even in the West Bank.
In fact, such a solution could solve some problems, but potentially create 10 new ones.
Another possibility would be to create a group led by tribal chiefs, non-governmental organizations and with the involvement of Egypt.
It is also taken for granted that the damaged infrastructure in Gaza will have to be rebuilt from scratch, just as it was done after previous wars in the region.
It is also assumed that after the bloody attack on its territory, Israel will impose even more suffocating restrictions on Gaza.
At the same time, proposals have been made for a wider security zone on the fence with Gaza, to protect Israeli communities.
Yoram Cohen, former head of the government’s Shin Bet security service, argues that a 2km security zone is required and the Israeli army will shoot without question anyone who moves within that space.
The significant losses and lack of an exit strategy
Although Israel has one of the most developed and well-equipped armies in the world, several analysts warn that a ground operation in Gaza will be no cakewalk.
Hamas fighters are determined to defend their territories, they have nothing to lose and they have had plenty of time to prepare their defenses.
The fierce battles that will follow will leave behind hundreds – if not thousands – of dead Palestinians, while the losses of Israeli soldiers will also be significant.
Even if Israel ultimately succeeds in defeating Hamas and expelling it from Gaza, a strategic victory will not be easy.
And this is because Hamas will remain a political and military force in the region, with a significant presence in the West Bank and Lebanon.
In fact, from these areas – and with the cooperation of other corresponding groups – it will continue to launch attacks against its mortal enemy.
At the same time, Israel will find itself in control of the devastated Gaza Strip, which will be plagued by an unimaginable humanitarian crisis.
And, as “The New Arab” analysts explain, he will not have a clear exit strategy from the region.
Necessarily, as he did in the case of the West Bank, he will be forced to turn to the international community to rebuild Gaza while it is possible that he will try to communicate with the Palestinian Authority, hoping that he will not have to govern the region alone, as was the case before since the Oslo Accords in 1993.
And will the Palestinian Authority accept to assume such a role? Difficult, given that Israel has undermined its credibility and influence with what it has done in the past.
It is worth noting that Israel’s governments in the past have expanded their settlements, gone out of their way to remove the possibility of a two-state solution, and increased military operations in Palestinian cities.
Even if the Palestinian Authority eventually returns to Gaza behind Israeli tanks, it is unlikely that it will be able to maintain control without a continued Israeli presence in the area.
And will Abbas agree to take on such a role in Gaza?
Also difficult, given that his influence over the long-suffering Palestinian people will be further diminished. Perhaps Israel could… sweeten the offer somewhat by providing foreign funds for Gaza as well.
It is also possible that Israel may attempt to impose the West Bank model on Gaza – something analysts say will lead to even more political instability and insecurity, given Gaza’s long history of resistance.
So in the long run, Israel’s return to Gaza may further lock Israelis and Palestinians into a one-state reality of endless conflict and apartheid.
Source: cnn.gr
