Mayenne with a Mediterranean climate in 2100. Since 2022, the Normandy-Maine park and geopark has been working on the creation ofa map that shows the climate at the end of the century. Two scenarios, one pessimistic and one optimistic, which in all cases announce a rise in temperatures, but also more and more extreme climatic events.
The 35 degree mark exceeded several times during the year
In Villaines-la-Juhel, the temperature will have increased by 3.5°C in 76 years. The thermometer will pass the 25 degree mark for almost two and a half months, and the 35 degree mark more than 5 times a year, which was very rarely the case at the end of the 20th century. The nights also look more complicated according to the most pessimistic model: 18 nights where the temperature will not drop below 20°Cwhich was rarely the case between 1976 and 2005.
“We are moving from an oceanic climate, rather mild and rainy, to a Mediterranean climate, with a period of drought in summer.” Romain Louvet is part of the design team for this model. “It’s going to rain a lot more in winter, a lot less in summer.” There will be fewer rainy days, but much heavier precipitation, which can create more frequent flooding or flooding.
“It’s what we do today that determines the climate in 2100”
Originally, projections ended in 2070. “We thought people wouldn’t be able to imagine this time scale until 2100.” But this left a taste of unfinished business for Romain Louvet, “by stopping here, we are not telling the film to the end.” The difference between the optimistic scenario and the pessimistic scenario playing out today, the team ultimately pushed the analysis to the end of the century. “It also concerns people now, and not just the youngest. It’s everyone,” justifies Romain Louvet.
The map is based on the work of the IPCC. Forecasts announced for a long time. “The climate has already changed, but normally this happens over several tens of thousands of years. Here it happened in a century and a half,” laments the geographic data technician.
The link to the map: What climate for 2100 in the territory of the Normandy-Maine Park and Geopark?
