Food prices are a rather sensitive topic, because Ukrainians spend half of their income on food. Therefore, every increase of even a few hryvnia hurts many Ukrainian wallets. Unfortunately, expert forecasts are bleak: despite the price records that we are already seeing, a further rise in food prices is inevitable.
Food prices rose due to the summer heat, increased fuel costs, increased feed costs, seasonal fluctuations in demand, the weakening of the hryvnia and, in general, due to war risks.
From bread to meat: prices will rise
Although prices are already breaking records, experts predict further increases in prices for many products. According to World Bank expert Oksana Ruzhenkova, prices for carrots will rise first. This is the most difficult root crop from an agronomic point of view, and so far the quality of carrots, unfortunately, is not the best. Therefore, carrots can add about 20% more in price.
Another vegetable from the borscht set that will bring price surprises is cabbage. White cabbage prices have already amazed us in the summer, but further price records are ahead. “Beijing cabbage is already sold today at exorbitant prices – 50-56 UAH per kilo. Prices for red cabbage are quite high: it is sold in the capital’s supermarkets at 40 UAH per kilo and more,” states Ruzhenkova. “In general, the entire cabbage group “bites” at a price, because the quality of this vegetable directly depends on irrigation, which, in turn, is related to the availability and price of electricity.” Also, the expert continues, prices for greenhouse tomatoes and cucumbers will rise by the end of the month.
We expect a further increase in prices for meat and dairy products due to increased costs of feed, veterinary medicines, and electricity. For example, purchase prices for milk have increased by a quarter on average since the beginning of the year. Growth continues due to strong demand for raw materials and a decrease in animal numbers.
“If we compare with last year’s prices, pork has fallen in price by about a quarter,” Ruzhenkova noted. “Farmers have increased pork production, and this has made it more affordable. However, meat prices will continue to rise, primarily for beef and chicken.”
Note that this year prices for beef are already breaking records – in chain supermarkets they amount to 340-380 UAH per kg of tenderloin, while last year in the fall the price was in the range of 220-260 UAH per kg. Not so significantly, but noticeably, the price of chicken has increased over the past year: last year in November, a kilogram of fillet cost 120-140 UAH, and now it is 160-180 UAH.
Experts predict a rise in bread prices as bakeries gradually reduce production
Bread will become more expensive in Ukraine, because bakeries are gradually reducing production. According to Ruzhenkova, this is due to the fact that stores are now purchasing a limited amount of bread, and until they sell the stale ones, they do not take new batches. Often in the evening you can see empty bread shelves in supermarkets – people are sorting out bread as the most affordable and satisfying product.
As for cereals, domestic cereals are quite affordable. “The situation with buckwheat is a little alarming. The fact is that the Odessa ports that began to operate opened the way for all grains. Due to the fact that buckwheat is not in great demand in foreign markets, farmers changed the structure of sown areas. They reduced the area under buckwheat, but we grew soybeans and rapeseed. There will be no shortage of buckwheat – in any case, we have good transitional leftovers from last year. But still, for those who… health reasons or for other reasons uses buckwheat as a daily side dish, I would recommend buying a couple of kilograms,” advises Ruzhenkova.
And finally, the unexpectedly bad situation in the country with apples. Apples in season at a dollar per kilogram is nonsense for Ukraine, but industry associations claim that they will continue to rise in price.
Bread and potatoes: the cheapest items are becoming more expensive
The richer people are, the more they consume meat, fish, and dairy products, while the poor are left with bread and potatoes, stated Oleg Pendzin, executive director of the Economic Discussion Club.
“In our common food basket there is a cheap segment, and there is an expensive one, and which segment a person focuses on directly depends on the level of income,” Pendzin noted. “And due to the fact that real incomes of the population have been declining since the beginning of the full-scale invasion “, the middle class is moving from the segment of expensive products to the segment of cheap ones, where even without them there was quite a high demand from people with low incomes.”
The demand for cheap products leads to their rapid rise in price, while prices for expensive products remain almost unchanged, continues Oleg Pendzin. So, if, for example, meat and eggs have risen in price by an average of 1% over the year, then potatoes have risen by 150%.
The rise in prices for cheap products cannot continue indefinitely: nevertheless, potatoes and carrots have not reached the level of meat and dairy products. “A year ago, a dozen eggs cost 60 UAH, a kilogram of potatoes – 12 UAH, and if a person has no money, his choice is obvious,” noted Oleg Pendzin. “Now eggs cost the same 60 UAH, and potatoes – 30 UAH, that is, even after the price has increased by 2.5 times, eating potatoes still means saving, of course, this affects the vitamin balance, immunity, and health, but for those who barely. making ends meet, there’s no time for that now. People are just surviving.”
There is no threat of famine. But there’s less to eat
According to a study by the Razumkov Center, 44% of Ukrainians save on groceries, and for them this means that they try to buy the cheapest products. Answering the question whether the next step would be a reduction in consumption, Oleg Pendzin noted that the question is not raised that way now. “There is a certain level of consumption, and its reduction means hunger,” the expert noted. “We are not even talking about this. We are faced with the question of deterioration in the consumption structure, not hunger. Ukraine is an agricultural country, most of our households have private plots , cottages, vegetable gardens, so people often try to solve the food problem on their own.”
42% of respondents consume less food, and 27% skip some meals
At the same time, a survey conducted by Gradus Research indicates that Ukrainians have become smaller. When asked how their eating habits had changed during the full-scale war, 42% said they were eating less food and 27% said they were skipping some meals.
At the same time, two-thirds of respondents noted that they give preference to the cheapest products when purchasing products.
