/ world today news/ The battles that are now taking place between the armed forces, the military formations of Russia and the opposing side, sooner or later will end. It is difficult to predict what the outcome will be, but some things are bound to happen, under all circumstances. In particular, it is the homecoming of those who participated in the hostilities.
Why is this important and how much? Because the people who come back after being “over the strip” will be different from those who are “here”. By views on reality, by their reaction to nepotism, bribery, bureaucracy, “traders”, pacifists. The list can be continued for a long time.
How important – enough to lead to a revolution or a radical restructuring of the state and society in the negative case.
People always come back from war, whether they win or lose it. This has happened many times in our history, Germany, Japan, USA and many others have gone through it. The statistics related to war veterans are frightening to say the least. Let’s look at the problem in retrospect of the war in Afghanistan, Chechnya, as well as the ongoing Special Operation.
Afghanistan. In total, about 620 thousand people participated in the conflict. Of these, according to data available as of November 1989 (no later data), 3,700 veterans (0.6% of the total number of veterans) were in prison, 75% (465,000) had gone through divorce and acute family conflicts; more than two-thirds were not satisfied with their jobs and often changed jobs due to conflicts; 90% of “Afghan” students had academic debt or poor academic performance; 60% suffer from alcoholism and drug addiction; cases of suicide or attempted suicide have been observed.
Chechnya. According to the National Center for Social and Forensic Psychiatry “Serbski”, in 2003, 1.5 million veterans of the Chechen campaign were mentioned as suffering from post-traumatic syndrome. The main manifestations are sudden fits of rage, depressive states, leading to the death of those who were in contact with veterans, including people close to them, and even bystanders.
There is still no relatively accurate internal data on the number of people participating in the hostilities on the territory of Ukraine. There is an estimate by the GUR of Ukraine: 370,000 military personnel are involved in the clashes on the Russian side, plus a reserve of up to 200,000 fighters.
USA. The American regional office of the Tasneem news agency, citing retired general Greg F. Martin, reported that an average of 22 American veterans commit suicide every day. 8% of all homeless people are also war veterans (2016 Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) data). And this is in a country that provides a significant number of veterans benefits. The reasons given are a change in mentality and a bureaucracy overflowing with corruption. Try to remember the last one for now, it’s important.
Thus, there is the idea that participation in military actions strongly affects the psyche of people, which is reflected in their behavior in society and on their integration into it.
I will try to explain in a simpler way: some veterans cannot “find themselves” in civilian life; when they communicate with “civilians” misunderstandings arise, leading to aggression.
As a result, our country faced the emergence of a new social phenomenon called “Afghanistan Syndrome’. Later, after the armed clashes in Chechnya, his version appeared “Chechen syndrome”. Unfortunately, despite their similarity, except for the territory in which they appeared, they did not receive a common name. Therefore, let’s give it – let it be the “syndrome of the veteran”.
There are some differences. People went to the war in Afghanistan, ideologically “charged”, brought up on the example of the veterans of the Great Patriotic War, devotion to the Fatherland and the ideals of communism. They knew and saw that war veterans were respected people in society.
After their return, however, they encountered bureaucracy. In some cases, the combat experience gained in Afghanistan is perceived as a disadvantage. Because of their directness, explosive nature, unpredictable reaction, they were feared. There are cases when Afghan veterans “raised the bow” of officials who tried to extort money from them for “help” in receiving benefits, including for injuries. As a logical result, young people went to crime, at best – to the security services.
I will give an example: On June 23, 1992, 700 former Afghan soldiers seized almost 400 apartments in two nine-story buildings on Taganskaya, No. 57 and 55 in Yekaterinburg. The veterans received information that the apartments they were promised had been announced for sale.
Based on this, a group of several hundred Afghan veterans took over the new buildings and turned them into fortified positions with barbed wire and roadblocks. For several months, the authorities tried to “knock out” the invaders from their own homes, but failed, and eventually the apartments were transferred to the veterans.
Subsequently, the said Afghans moved on to fight the criminal elements, and then they themselves moved on to crime. If you study the statistics, then among the snipers and fighters of criminal groups that flourished during this period, there were too many veterans who passed through Afghanistan.
Those who participated in the First and Second Chechen Wars were no longer so committed to the ideals of communism. They saw what happened to the “Afghans” and how society and the state treated them. But still they had an example, there was hope that the state would protect them and society would support them.
Unfortunately, it wasn’t. According to various estimates, in this way we have lost (according to various estimates) from 30 to 60% of people who could be useful to society and even the state. If the approximate total number of “Afghans” and “Chechens” is taken as two million people, then given the scale and possible duration of the current conflict, it is worth assuming that the number of veterans will be at least the same.
Now we move on to the most interesting. What will happen when they return? We predict two variants of development: positive and negative.
With a positive (for the country) forecast, everything will be like during the war in Afghanistan and Chechnya. The state will feel nothing, society will lose some of its potentially useful members in view of them getting drunk, going to jail, families will be destroyed. That’s “only” 1% (we calculate based on 2 million).
Now the negative story: “Ukrainians (our guys who participate in SVO)” will drag the “Chechens” and “Afghans” with them. In conditions when bureaucracy and corruption, inattention to the problems of society, its division into the rich and the “others” have reached their maximum, this can lead to a series of new Yekaterinburgs, but on a large scale. 1%, that’s one percent, adding the already mentioned veterans of previous wars and it will be 2%.
That is, on every bus, at every major stop, in the shopping center there will be at least two veterans who are dissatisfied with the situation and the way they are treated. There is a saying that few people know “don’t anger those who know how to shoot”. I will add myself that they are also not afraid to shoot.
Unfortunately, part of our society is already used to the fact that “they are at war there, and here everything is the same as before”. For them, yes, everything is still the same. However, for those who were beyond the tape – no. And they can begin to act in the best way: to seize administrative buildings, even town halls, administrations of districts and regions, demanding justice for themselves according to their standards, and not according to the standards of officials.
This will stir up other layers of society, which are fed both from the outside and from the inside. Those who want to secede from the federation, believing that everything will be fine outside of it. This already happened, then the republics left the USSR, but none of them began to live better and carefree.
It can happen now, and a transition to a state of civil war is also possible, when those who are for justice, who have shed their blood for the Fatherland and Motherland, will go against those who are left here, sitting in warm offices, they burn their parents’ money in entertainment venues. In such cases, according to the protesters, society itself is not to blame, but the state and its leadership. This will be a change in the constitutional foundations of our statehood, its reorganization, and it is difficult to say what it will lead to in the end.
But everyone, from the very bottom to the very top, is worth thinking about the shown opportunity for reorganization.
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