By Ollantay Itzamná
Two neoliberal social democratic political parties are competing for the presidency of Guatemala on August 20. Neither of them has a majority in the next Congress of the Republic. Both go to Washington to purify themselves politically.
In the case of Sandra Torres, a candidate for the National Unity of Hope (UNE) party, she has already been imprisoned for crimes of illicit association. In the case of Bernardo Arévalo, the benefit of the doubt remains about his promise to “fight against corruption.” Although in 2015 Guatemala already elected an “outsider in the fight against corruption”, Jimmy Morales, who turned out to be worse than his imprisoned predecessor.
Whoever wins, the neoliberal system, linked to the drug trafficking industry, will continue to dispossess the territories with more violence than before. Neither of the two political parties questions the validity of the neoliberal system in Guatemala.
If the neoliberal system continues to thrive, then the army of Guatemalan emigrants expelled to the US will continue to grow. By 2027, there will no longer be 6 out of 10 Guatemalans living in poverty, but rather poverty will eat away at perhaps 65% or more of the population.
If Bernardo Arévalo wins, it is likely, due to the influence of the sensitive youth that surrounds him, that he will try to carry out some symbolic or cosmetic reforms in state institutions or public policies. But, if possible, these reforms will be minimal since the Congress of the Republic and the legal and illegal economy are controlled by the so-called “corrupt pact.”
In this hypothetical context, Arévalo will only have to get as close as possible to the US Embassy (if he doesn’t, he could have the same end as Jacobo Árbenz or Otto Pérez). But, the Embassy will not allow Arévalo to approach the anti-neoliberal or anti-imperial sociopolitical actors that will surely continue in the communities and on the streets of Guatemala. The indigenous-peasant-popular sector financed by the USAID crumbs will not be able to defend Arévalo from the attacks of the oligarchy.
If Sandra Torres wins, she will still have the support of the gringo embassy, in addition to the legal and illegal oligarchy of the country. The state apparatus will continue its accelerated process of entropy (self-destruction) occupied by organized crime. But, people’s living conditions will continue to worsen. And resistance to dispossession and neoliberal looting from the territories will continue to grow.
With the Semilla party, it is probable that the racist Creole state will breathe new life or try to revitalize itself, but it will surely be for the benefit of the usual, and on the ashes of the towns. Just as it happened in the two centuries of the Republic. With the UNE party, it is probable that the apparent State in the territories will collapse faster, giving rise, if anything, to self-organizing processes of the communities and peoples to manage their lives. But, violence and insecurity will continue to increase.
In summary, the transformative hope for the great majorities does not lie in either of the two options. In 2027, Guatemalanness will continue to look for the promise of structural changes, and hopefully with some lessons learned. Because I do not believe that these peoples were born condemned to the eternal placebo.
Ollantay Itzamna. Defender of the Rights of Mother Earth and Human Rights from Abya Yala.
